As Ash Settles, U.S. Airlines See Clear Skies

As the cloud of volcanic ash that shuttered Europe's airports clears, the industry has begun to handicap its losses. On Wednesday, the International Air Transport Association, an industry group, put the damage at $1.7 billion in lost revenue for the airlines during the five-day flying ban.

But not all airlines were affected equally. Carriers whose business does not revolve around Europe have been largely unscathed, analysts say. Regardless of whether the volcano weighs on the recovery of the broader industry, the five major United States carriers that fly to Europe may offer investors opportunities for solid returns, they say.

The airline industry was in the midst of an aggressive comeback when Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull volcano began ejecting a fog of soot into the sky last week. The Claymore/NYSE Arca Airline ETF had climbed 15.5% since the beginning of the year, outpacing the 8.3% gain of the broader S&P 500.

Now, industry watchers say carriers like Delta Air Lines (DAL), Continental Airlines (CAL), American Airlines (AMR), United Airlines (UAUA) and U.S. Airways (LCC) may continue to bounce back because they ll see minimal impact from the volcano in their quarterly results.

"As far as they're concerned, it wasn't a big deal," says Roger King, an airlines analyst with CreditSights, a New York capital structure research firm. He notes that while American relies on London Heathrow's airport, most U.S. airlines get a small portion of their revenue from Europe.

Avondale Partners analyst Bob McAdoo reiterated his outperform ratings on the five big carriers, as well as budget carriers JetBlue Airways (JBLU) and Southwest Airlines (LUV), in a sector earnings preview note published Monday. Although Delta and United -- the first carriers to report quarterly results -- posted results a little short of expectations, McAdoo says a disciplined approach to non-fuel cost control and capacity cutbacks suggest "strong results during the upcoming peak season."

King also says that the revival of merger talks between United and U.S. Airways and Continental suggests the industry is ready for further consolidation, which should leave the remaining airlines stronger. United's stock posted a gain a large as 82% for the year to date at the peak of merger rumors earlier this month. U.S. Airways shares have been up as much as 53%, and Continental's have climbed as much as 33%. Those gains have subsided in the past 10 days, but King says an inevitable merger should give shares another lift.

"It's going to be positive for whichever two airlines merger," he says. "And while I think unit revenue will be rising, that's off of a lousy base. But we're not talking about anybody going bankrupt, and this is not going to be a bad year financially for the airlines."

As for the broader industry, Henry Harteveldt, a travel industry analyst at Forrester Research, says the timing of the eruption will make it difficult for foreign airlines to recover.

"This could not have come at a worse time" for European travel companies, he says, "but the irony is that this may wind up being a good thing for some U.S. carriers." Prospective travelers to Europe may choose U.S. carriers because they can change their routing to other airports and will have the aircraft to support additional flights if another volcanic interruption closes some airports.

Another eruption could also send American travelers west or south, to Asia, Latin America or to domestic destinations, which could boost airline revenues.

"What's really a shame about this was that trans-Atlantic demand had been improving," Harteveldt says, adding that airlines told him they were seeing better demand for business tickets. "No one said they were out of the woods, but they were also seeing sales of higher-priced coach class tickets."

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