Last Tuesday marked the one-year anniversary of the market s lowest point since the late 1990s, but it also marked a full year of market growth.

On March 9, 2009, the U.S. stock market began a rally that led the S&P 500 up 68%. At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average leapt 59%, while the Nasdaq Composite soared 79%. Even Greece, a country that s now beset by debt troubles, saw its stock market rise over the last year. (Since last March, Greece s stock market gained about 56% in U.S. dollar terms, or 46% in euros, as measured by the Athens Stock Exchanged General Index.)

Still, despite these gains and the fact that various economic indicators have shown improvements in recent months, investors have already begun to pull back. Some brokers say the trend will continue for at least another full year.

Here s why two brokers think that year two of this bull market will be a dud.

Who s Talking: Jeffrey Kleintop, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial

The Gist: Even as the U.S. economy seems to be stabilizing, the next year is not likely to be as prosperous as the past 12 months have been. We suspect tailwinds will turn to headwinds and history will repeat itself.

In the last year, the market s rally was sustained by a combination of factors, including improvements in the credit markets, a return to economic and profit growth and continued demand from overseas investors. However, the massive government stimulus package could end up dampening that improved climate for equity growth or worse, bringing headwinds during the second half of the year. Our outlook leads us to believe that the slower pace of growth may now begin to slow the rally and contribute to the return of volatility in the stock market, Kleintop says.

The market s recent stall has come after promising labor data, suggesting some systemic market pressures. There were fewer job losses than expected in February and staffing firm Manpower released an upbeat survey showing 16% of companies polled intended to hire in the second quarter, while 8% expect a decrease in payrolls. Still, the market has made only marginal gains so far this year. Based on this week s market performance, the Dow is up narrowly for the year joining both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, which moved into the black on Monday.

This so-called second-year slowdown is well founded, Kleintop says. Over the past 40 years, there have been four recession-related stock market declines in excess of 20%. Accordingly, recession-related bear markets ended with strong stock market rallies that lasted until their first anniversary. In their second year, the rallies have tended to flatten out and become more volatile, providing modest gains punctuated by multiple 5% to 10% pullbacks, he says.

Although the U.S. economy seems to be stabilizing, which some say could lead to profit growth and cause the markets to drift higher, the country still faces a number of challenges, he says. And the next year is unlikely to be anywhere near as rewarding as the past one, Kleintop says.

Who s Talking: David A. Rosenberg, Chief Economist and Strategist, Gluskin Sheff + Associates

The Gist: Either investors buying power has subsided or the overvalued market is finally facing a reality check.

Most market watchers believe the U.S. has finally entered into a period of job creation. But that doesn t necessarily mean the markets will swell. The reason? The climate that was formerly conducive to a recovery in the equity market is no longer present, Rosenberg says. In the aftermath of the downturn, the [Federal Reserve] blew out its balance sheet in support of the mortgage industry, the government guaranteed the survival of the large banks, the shorting industry was sharply curtailed and the banks were allowed to hide losses again on their illiquid assets via accounting changes that were foisted onto the [Securities and Exchange Commission] from Congress in the name of saving the system, he says. The spending to get the economy going has been so acute that even if revenues had not gone down with the economic turndown, the budget gap would still far exceed the $1 trillion mark.

Noting this weak position, investors who bought shares at or near last year s market lows and have held on for 12 months thereby avoiding a short-term capital gains hit have already begun fleeing in anticipation of a slower year. In the global equity markets, for instance, we are seeing a whole lot of profit taking, says Rosenberg. The U.S. dollar and the yen are strengthening, while the British pound has slid to a 10-month low part and parcel to risk aversion trades. In addition, corporate bond risks like those attached to credit-default swap spreads are back on the rise, while oil is trading lower. Meanwhile, bonds are rallying across the board, he says.

In a nutshell, it comes down to valuation, says Rosenberg. He adds, Are you willing to outbid everyone else at the auction for the Ford Focus?