Can Google Stay Ahead of the Competition?

Google is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings after the market close today, and most analysts expect comparatively weak figures following a quarter that included regulatory scrutiny in the U.S. and Europe and a censorship battle with China. Also, the expanding mobile Web sector, in part led by Apple s (AAPL) iPad, is fueling investor anxiety as to whether Google (GOOG) can pass and stay ahead of the competition. The company is expected to report earnings of $6.53 a share, excluding special items, and $4.99 billion in net revenue, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. That would be down from earnings of $6.76 a share from the previous quarter. The second quarter s challenges demonstrate that as Google diversifies into a multi-purpose tech company, shareholders may have to accept a period of lower-than-expected earnings and revenues.

Shareholder concerns about Google have been building this year as the stock price has declined 21%. So far this month, shares are up 11%, but it is unclear if that s because of the company itself or the rebounding stock market. Within today s earnings report, it s likely that investors will zoom in on search ads, specifically the rate at which consumers are clicking on ads placed on Google searches. A sequential decline in click prices is a negative as it indicates the conversions of clicks into customers is slowing, Colin Gillis, a technology analyst at BGC Partners, wrote in a report. Google will announce today that it has partnered with Omnicon Media Group (), an advertising company, in an attempt to boost online display ads, according to the Wall Street Journal. Omnicon is expected to buy millions of dollars of display ads to sell to its clients during the next two years, the Journal reported. Investors should keep a close eye on this deal, which could present an opportunity for upside going forward.

Some analysts suggest that the dip in Google s stock price stems in part from market discounting that occurred this past quarter before it was clear that the Federal Trade Commission would approve its deal with mobile-advertising company AdMob. As the market became increasingly concerned that GOOG was increasingly becoming an antitrust target, investors concluded that the stock was pricing in too much non-search growth too soon, wrote Tim Boyd, executive director of Internet and e-commerce at MKM Partners, in a report. It s possible that the downside impact of Google vs. FTC could factor into earnings for the second quarter but provide growth in the near term as the AdMob partnership comes to fruition.

Also, now that Google has secured a content license in China, its investors must wait to see if its landing page strategy for Google.cn will work for Chinese users or if it will instead complicate the user experience and deter growth. While investors have never expected GOOG to be a dominant force in China, in our view, the idea of zero exposure to the world s biggest growth market apparently was not acceptable to investors either, wrote Boyd. Just as it did to the present value of GOOG s mobile and display business, the market gave GOOG s China operations a material valuation haircut.

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