Decoding Bernanke for Investors

In the old E.F. Hutton commercials, everyone stops to listen for critical financial pronouncements. And something like that happens any time the head of the Federal Reserve has something to say. On Wednesday, Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before the House Financial Service Committee delivering a boost to the broader markets. In the Fed s semiannual monetary policy report, Bernanke offered reassurance that the Fed s benchmark rate is still likely to stay low for an extended period of time.

His prepared remarks and testimony touched on everything from interest rates, to regulation and consumer protection. At times, the whirlwind of language much of it familiar but some of it new or altered was a lot to digest. Here s SmartMoney s decoder guide to some of Bernanke s key comments, with help from some market watchers.

BERNANKE: Conditions in short-term funding markets have returned to near precrisis levels. Many (mostly larger) firms have been able to issue corporate bonds or new equity and do not seem to be hampered by a lack of credit. In contrast, bank lending continues to contract, reflecting both tightened lending standards and weak demand for credit amid uncertain economic prospects.

TRANSLATION: Sure, we just raised the discount rate. But the Fed recognizes that in many areas, credit is still very tight.

For Brian Bethune, director of financial economics for IHS Global Insight's United States Macroeconomics Group, the situation is an unholy alliance of banks that aren t interested in lending and businesses not dying to borrow for expansion. You certainly can t go to a vibrant recovery in that type of situation therein lies the challenge, he says.

BERNANKE: In response to the substantial improvements in the functioning of most financial markets, the Federal Reserve is winding down the special liquidity facilities it created during the crisis. The only remaining lending program for multiple borrowers created under the Federal Reserve's emergency authorities, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, is scheduled to close on March 31 for loans backed by all types of collateral except newly issued commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and on June 30 for loans backed by newly issued CMBS.

TRANSLATION: We pulled out all the stops in crisis, but we re getting a little weary of this.

The Fed s diminishing patience may be understandable but not everybody agrees the job is done. The asset backed securities market is still broken, says Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. He says the Fed has undoubtedly worked to support the segment, but things are still pretty frozen in this critical market. That s a key to consumer debt asset backed securities were driving auto loans, credit-card loans and home-equity loans. And that market is gone, at least for now.

BERNANKE: Although the federal funds rate is likely to remain exceptionally low for an extended period, as the expansion matures, the Federal Reserve will at some point need to begin to tighten monetary conditions to prevent the development of inflationary pressures. Notwithstanding the substantial increase in the size of its balance sheet associated with its purchases of Treasury and agency securities, we are confident that we have the tools we need to firm the stance of monetary policy at the appropriate time.

TRANSLATION: We aren t moving at warp speed, but don t think we aren t ready to fight inflation with higher rates.

For now, Wall Street is divided between how much attention should be paid to the threat on the horizon inflation and how much to worry about the problem at hand, namely, still-uncertain economic growth. To Bethune, it s just a confidence builder saying we ve done our homework, we re prepared when-and-if to go back to normal monetary policy but he adds that it s kind of like saying we ve got an exit strategy before we ve really won the war. Ablin doesn t think Bernanke s comments necessarily inspire much confidence. To me, it s the Fed s 30-year track record of controlling inflation that engenders confidence, he says. They won t let the genie out.

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