ByDAREN FONDARESHMA KAPADIA
When > its streak of dividend increases in the 1950s, Dwight Eisenhower was president. More than half a century later, the St. Louis industrial giant is still at it. Its latest dividend increase put the annual payout at $1.32, which works out to a yield of about 4%. Other companies sport higher yields, but they can come with some baggage, like a sour industry outlook or a spotty record of dividend increases. In contrast, companies like Emerson often have lower yields but brighter long-term growth prospects. They also tend to have strong cash flow even in rough economies, notes Don Taylor, manager of the Franklin Rising Dividend fund. "Quality is key these days," he says.
Here are two picks with decades of dividend increases, strong balance sheets and steady-eddy businesses for these rocky times.
Emerson Electric
Dividend Yield: 4%
Crashing economies are hardly good news for industrial stocks. So what's so great about a 119-year-old firm that makes tools, electrical switches and thousands of other products in 265 manufacturing locations around the world? While Emerson (EMR)
With factories in China, Mexico, Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, St. Louis-based Emerson can quickly shift production to take advantage of the most favorable local currency and brightest business prospects. And that's helped Emerson steadily increase profits, including a 12 percent boost last year, to $3.9 billion. "We've been through these times before," Emerson CEO David Farr tells SmartMoney, "and we know how to adjust."
Emerson should also get a lift in coming years from global efforts to cut carbon emissions and improve energy efficiency. The company makes highly efficient compressors and should see strong sales growth as countries like China impose tough new energy standards for heating and air conditioning equipment. Its cooling systems for data centers also help companies lower their fuel bills. And it recently launched a suite of wireless devices for oil-and-gas and chemical plants designed to bring their vast networks of pipes and equipment into the digital age and make them run more efficiently.
Of course, Emerson still faces hurdles as companies scale back plans for big industrial projects. The firm expects capital spending to drop sharply in the U.S. and Europe, and its appliance-and-tool division-heavily exposed to the U.S. housing market-isn't likely to recover soon. Yet those factors seem to be priced into the stock, says Michael Schneider, an analyst with R.W. Baird. In the meantime, the company is committed to returning 50 to 60 percent of its operating cash flow to shareholders via stock buybacks and dividends.
Even if earnings per share drop 14 percent this fiscal year, to $2.68, as Wall Street forecasts, Emerson should still have plenty of money left to pay the dividend and continue raising it. "We've always had an enormous focus on cash," says Farr. "That way, we know we can control our own destiny."
Sysco
Dividend Yield 4.0%
When Sysco (SYY)
One reason is efficiency. Sysco recently reorganized its distribution network, using software to help it consolidate orders and reduce empty cargo space on trucks. The result: 62,000 fewer trucks on the road, lower costs and more cash. "You hear a lot of companies described as cash machines," says Andrew Wolf, food and drug merchandising analyst at BB&T. "But if there was ever a company that clich was intended for, it's Sysco."
Sysco isn't about to escape the recession-70 percent of its business comes from restaurants, and many of them are suffering as consumers eat at home to save money. Over the past decade, the company increased its dividend an average of 17 percent a year, while profits rose an average of 15 percent. Dividend increases will likely be smaller as earnings growth slows to single digits. Still, any growth at all puts it ahead of most companies. Sysco also has a stock buyback plan, which it could reduce before having to chip away at its dividend, says Robert Millen, manager of the Jensen Fund, which owns the shares. "We feel they have a cushion," he adds.
The company is also better positioned than rivals because it does more than deliver food, often acting as a consultant helping customers identify the most lucrative parts of their business and even assisting in planning their menus. And when a restaurant is looking to cut costs, Sysco can offer its own branded food-as diverse as salmon cakes and bananas Foster pies-giving customers more food for the price they were paying before. That ability to help customers cut costs is something few rivals can match, says Parnassus director of research Ben Allen.
The company's strong balance sheet, with total debt to capital of 37 percent, gives it an edge during this downturn to keep growing, especially with its largest rival, US FoodService, saddled with debt after a leveraged buyout. As a result, Allen thinks Sysco has an open field to take share from smaller, struggling rivals and extend its North American lead. Over the nearer term, analysts say Sysco could benefit from the tailwind of easing commodity costs. "Barring a depression, they can take a pretty big hit from here and still generate enough cash for the dividend," Wolf says.
This story was corrected on Feb. 10, 2009. The original story stated that Emerson Electric began its streak of dividend increases in 1966, when Lyndon Johnson was president. In fact, the dividend streak started in 1956, when Dwight D. Eisenhower was president. >



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