Don't Be Afraid of All-Time Highs

Maybe it s or the fear or looking foolish, but we instinctively tend to shy away from markets trading at or near their all-time-highs.

First, we re conditioned to want a bargain. If we re bullish on NTT DoCoMo trading at $16.75, for some reason we refuse to pay anything more than $16.40, and when it rallies further, we stubbornly sit on our hands and promise to add shares only if the price corrects back to where we originally spotted it. We re a nation of hagglers: Nobody wants to pay full price.

That approach contradicts the very reason that leads us to put money to work in the first place. If you re bullish on XYZ, buy XYZ and buy it at the market price. In a bull move, waiting to buy a dip when establishing an initial position often means missing out completely, as the security rises and never looks back.

We are even more reluctant to buy into markets at all-time-highs because, in addition to possibly losing money, there s massive ego risk. Who wants to be known as having been foolish enough to have bought the all-time high for anything? We convince ourselves the real move has already been made.

How Far Off the Peak?
HighDate of HighCurrentRetracement (%)
Pork bellies144.00Aug 25, 2010144.000.0
Gold1257.20June 18, 20101239.90-1.4
Feeder cattle119.58Oct 13, 2005116.40-2.7
Ten-year note130.09Dec 18, 2008125.92-3.2
Swiss franc1.01March 17, 20080.97-4.1
Live cattle104.00July 2, 200898.67-5.1
Jap. yen1.25April 18, 19951.18-5.5
Lean hogs91.32Aug 19, 198277.01-15.6
Copper407.75July 2, 2008321.10-21.3
Cotton116.88April 24, 199588.15-24.6
S&P 5001576.20Oct 9, 20071054.60-33.1
Br. pound2.45April 23, 19801.54-36.8
Soybeans16.58July 3, 200810.00-39.7
Corn7.54June 27, 20084.05-46.4
RBOB gasoline357.10July 3, 2008186.39-47.8
Cocoa5368.00July 18, 19772719.00-49.3
Wheat12.80Feb 27, 20086.478-49.4
Crude oil145.29July 3, 200872.52-50.1
Coffee335.63April 14, 1997164.10-51.1
Heating oil410.60July 3, 2008197.06-52.0
Rice24.46April 23, 200811.26-54.0
Silver41.50Jan 21, 200819.03-54.2
Lumber492.40March 8, 1993210.60-57.2
NASDAQ 1004804.00March 24, 20001789.75-62.7
Sugar #1165.20Nov 20, 197420.03-69.3
Natural gas15.378Dec 13, 20053.87-74.8
Source: Bloomberg

Yet consider how many all-time-highs gold has hit since eclipsing it s long held $800 level back in early 2008. Or the fact that, although the Securities and Exchange Commission bizarrely chose to fine a ConAgra trader for his attempt to buy the first all-time-high of $100-a-barrel crude oil in 2008, prices ultimately jumped 48% just six months later. That s exactly the point: $100 ended up being a high, not the high.

Regular readers know we never characterize markets as high or low," but as strong or weak." And in trending markets, strong securities like the yen or bonds tend to stay strong, or at least stronger than alternatives. On a price basis alone, an all-time-high is a reason to follow a market, not flee it.

Given the wide variety of investment products now available, it makes sense to cast a wide net when looking for opportunity, especially given the recent weakness in equities.

Among those markets closest to their all-time highs include gold (1.4% below) and bonds (3.2% below), both which have received extensive media coverage along with the Swiss franc (4.1% below) and livestock, where pork belly prices currently rest at an historic high and cattle (2.7% below) rest only slightly under the peaks notched earlier this decade.

At the time of writing, Hoenig s fund owned shares of securities discussed.

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