Don't Stand in Way of Rallying Stocks

With TiVo (TIVO), I can watch an hour-long episode of Iron Chef in about 20 minutes, while Apple's (AAPL)visual voicemail lets me mow through a half-hour's worth of phone messages in about 10. Modern technology has spoiled us into expecting results on our terms and within our timeframes.

Markets are rarely that accommodating. They move on their own schedules. We can't control the markets, but we can control when and to what extent we try and hop along for the ride.

A few years ago I highlightedNippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT), which includes NTT America, the provider of the data backbone for Twitter. The company was praised during the Iranian student protests in 2009 for delaying network maintenance so as to not squelch the tweeting of pro-Democracy voices.

NTT's stock rose but fell behind other options -- most notably emerging markets -- up until recently when shares rallied sharply, reaching a new multi-month of $24.60 in the past few days.

A Decade to Finally Connect?

[tradecraft-ntt]

Nippon Telephone and Telegraph (NTT) - 10 years

And I don't exactly know why. Although the value of Twitter, and more broadly that of data providers, is again being demonstrated in places like Tunisia and Egypt, it's unquestionable that other themes, such as telecom, rising interest in dividend-paying stocks and a growing appetite for risk in general have also seemingly benefited shares. (NTT currently yields around 2.9%)

Put frankly, it doesn't really matter why shares are rallying, simply that they are. After dragging around a position like old luggage for the better part of two years, the market is finally discovering the value I initially saw way back when.

We make choices every day in our lives and in our portfolios. It's easy to dump weak performers, those stocks that fall below predetermined stop-loss limits. But when a stock within your portfolio finally starts to rally, to what extent are you willing to commit? When the train is leaving the station, you've got to decide if you want to get on board. With few exceptions, I believe you should.

When looking to add new risk capital, you should start by building on the securities held in your portfolio, as there's a distinct practical and psychological advantage that comes in playing the cards already in your hand.

That NTT continues to rally to multi-month highs above my cost is an objective indication of a bullish trend. For now at least, the market is rewarding liquidity in NTT. As someone who already has a position in place, I should be among those most eager to buy shares at even higher prices, providing the stock's position size does not overwhelm my entire portfolio.

Moreover, since I'm already familiar with the stock, how it trades, how management releases news or even how their annual reports look provides a psychological advantage over investors who are just discovering the stock for the first time.

Consider that for years it was a struggle to get many investors to consider gold as even a 5% allocation in their portfolios; too risky, they'd say. Now it's not uncommon to see 15% or more invested in the metal as years of steady returns have alleviated many concerns.

The fact I took my initial position in NTT back somewhere around the time Michael Jackson died is irrelevant. The highest probability trades are existing positions within your portfolio that are also strong performers in the current market environment. Right now, NTT is one.

As our attention wanes, it's human nature to dump old positions just when they're rallying. We hold stocks for years only to sell the moment they get back to even. But markets don't know where you bought those stocks. Just as I'm compelled to dump losing stocks, I'm equally obligated to try and maximize those existing positions which do rally, even if the move comes later than I had originally anticipated.

So play the hand you've been dealt. Our own investment horizons might be limited, but the market has all the time in the world. Once a position is established, the outcome is literally out of our hands. When a trade from years past finally takes off don't stand in it's way.

Jonathan Hoenig is managing member at Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC. At the time of writing, Hoenig's fund held positions in many of the securities mentioned.

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