Facebook Shares Fall, Are Still Overvalued

Hulbert: There's nothing in Facebook's latest earnings report to suggest that a fair value estimate of $13.80 for the stock needs major revision.

Facebook Inc. shares today are a lot closer to $13.80 now than in late May.

That's when I devoted a column to calculating what a fair price might be for the company's shares, coming up with $13.80. That column came a week after Facebook (FB) went public at $38 per share, and when those shares were trading for slight more than $33 per share. (Read my May 25 column, entitled "Facebook stock should trade for $13.80.")

In after-hours trading Thursday evening, following Facebook's first earnings announcement as a public company, the shares were trading below $24.

The reason to revisit my fair-value calculation today: Data in the newly released earnings report allow me to check whether the assumptions I used in that calculation appear to be too generous or too conservative.

Those assumptions include:

The key assumption on which Facebook's latest earnings report can provide a reality check, of course, is revenue growth. The company reported that its revenue in the second quarter of this year was 32.3% higher than in the second quarter of last year. That's slightly higher than the 25.6% annualized growth required for Facebook's revenue to hit the $11.58 billion I assumed in my late-May column.

So I re-ran my fair value analysis on the assumption that Facebook will be able to keep its revenue growing at this slightly higher rate. On that assumption -- which I will argue in a minute is generous -- then Facebook's fair value today would be $17.92 instead of the $13.80 estimate I reached in late May.

Better than the picture my analysis painted in May, but not a lot better -- since this higher estimate is still 25% lower than where the stock currently trades.

The reason I think it's overly generous to extrapolate for five years into the future the 32% by which the latest quarterly revenue is above the same year-ago quarter: Facebook's revenue over the last two quarters has been largely flat. In fact, if I were to base my extrapolation on just the last two quarters, I would find that even my original fair value estimate of $13.80 per share is too high.

The bottom line?

I can find nothing in Facebook's latest earnings report to suggest that a fair-value estimate for the stock of $13.80 needs major revision. No wonder Facebook shares were down so much in the wake of that report.

INVESTOR CENTER

MARKETS:
Chart
TODAY
Portfolio Chart

RESEARCH STOCKS & FUNDS

Subscriber Tool

Stock Screener

Screen over 7,000 stocks using more than 100 different variables.

Portfolio Tracker

Track your own buys and sells

See More Tools

Answer Engine
Find Answers to Life's Challenges  

Find solutions to this and many other problems using

Answer Engine from SmartMoney. 

Copyright 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved
This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit
www.djreprints.com.