Five Overseas Dividend Stocks With Strong Yields

JUDY SARYAN HAS

spent nearly three decades investing in dividend stocks. For years the fund manager put money in old standards like AT&T and Consolidated Edison. They were steady, somewhat boring and domestic. But take a look at the portfolio of her Eaton Vance Dividend Builder fund now and nearly half the stocks are foreign names. Ever hear of CPFL Energia? How about E.on or Veolia Environnement? No matter. For Saryan it translates to this: These days some of the best dividend payers are abroad.

Once largely ignored, foreign dividend stocks may become one of the best plays in the booming overseas markets. They have better growth prospects than many of their stateside counterparts and a new focus on returning money to shareholders. European and Asian companies have strengthened balance sheets and adopted a more shareholder-friendly stance in recent years, recognizing that a dividend signals strong management and financial health. And since share buybacks aren't as common as they are in the U.S., foreign companies have more money to devote to dividends. The 3% yield offered by European companies is well above the 1.8% average yield of stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500. The Asia-Pacific region also comes out ahead of the U.S., with an average yield of 2.5%.

The best dividend stocks keep rewarding investors long after they are purchased, and overseas companies come out ahead here, too. Over the past three years, Asia-Pacific dividends have been growing at 20% a year; Europe, at 18%; and the U.S., at 13%, says Martin Jansen, manager of the ING International High Dividend Equity Income fund. That growth could easily continue: The rest of the world economy is expected to expand at a faster pace than the U.S., and corporate restructuring in parts of Europe should free up more cash to return to shareholders.

Of course, even staid dividend stocks aren't without risk. Many foreign firms have what might be called lumpy dividends, which are often paid once or twice a year. While they are happy to boost their payouts beyond their stated dividend policy in good years, they may trim them when growth slows or they find better uses for their cash. What's more, overseas stocks have enjoyed a strong five-year run, so it wouldn't be surprising if they paused, especially if a U.S. recession caused ripples around the world. But whether it's Paris, Texas, or Paris, France, companies that pay dividends have a built-in advantage. After all, they need solid cash generation and a management team that's not overinvesting and thus less likely to get caught up in a major bubble. "It's a safety check," says Edmund Harriss, manager of the Guinness Atkinson Asia Pacific Dividend fund.

To read about a mutual fund that searches for dividend-paying stocks in Asia, turn to the February issue of SmartMoney Magazine, on newsstands now.

We started our search for "pay me now" gems by sticking to foreign stocks traded in the U.S. as American Depositary Receipts. Because their dividends are taxed like those of U.S. companies, ADRs avoid the headache of figuring out the foreign countries' tax rules. We narrowed the list to companies with dividend yields of at least 2.7% 50% higher than the S&P 500's average. (We also found some paying much more than that, including two emerging-market stocks yielding around 7% and 9%.) Finally, since we want companies that can sustain and even increase their dividends, we looked for those with plenty of cash flow. How long such bargains will last is anyone's guess. But as the oldest of baby boomers start collecting Social Security in the coming years, lots of people will be hunting for income.

Cash Cows

Our search for foreign dividend payers with strong cash flow led us to five companies in five industries.

CompanyPrice
12/7/07
($)
Mkt.Value
($bil)
2007 Est.
Rev.
($bil)
2008 Est.
Rev.
($bil)
2008
P/E
Yiled
(%)*
Total
82.83198.4190.3195.4103.5
CPFL Energia
63.3710.15.15.0189.0
Magyar Telekom
27.545.73.93.9106.8
AXA
41.8388.8132.8143.1103.4
Taiwan Semiconductor
10.3054.49.811.5144.4
* Indicated yield based on latest payout.
Sources: Bloomberg, Baseline

Dividend Yield: 3.5%

French oil-and-gas giant Total (pronounced to-TAL) is one of the most profitable companies in the industry, but that hasn't helped it much lately. Total failed to deliver on its 2007 growth targets, stymied by civil unrest in Nigeria, partial nationalization of a Venezuelan oil project, and delays caused by equipment and labor shortages. "Now it's come to a point where investors are saying, 'You've got to show me,'" says Daiwa oil-and-gas analyst David Stedman, in London.

The $198 billion energy company is trying to do just that in 2008. New projects, such as offshore oil production in Angola and gas production in Qatar, are beginning to bear fruit. While many of its rivals are struggling to eke out volume increases, Total expects average annual production growth of 4% through 2010, and Chief Financial Officer Robert Castaigne told investors that growth could continue well beyond that. With some of the lowest operating costs per barrel in the industry, much of that added revenue flows to the bottom line. That should give it plenty of cash to fund its dividend, which has been growing at 15% a year among the fastest of the major oil companies.

Total sells at 10 times expected 2008 earnings a discount of almost 20% compared with industry leader ExxonMobil. Based on recent energy prices, its profit should rise 10% to 12% a year over the next two or three years, twice the pace of its rivals, says Charlie Ober, who manages T. Rowe Price's New Era fund. Throw in that steadily increasing dividend and playing catch-up could be quite profitable.

Dividend Yield: 9.0%

As Brazil enters a fourth year of economic growth, the country's expanding middle class is on a spending spree, buying computers, appliances and other gear that sucks up energy. Cashing in on the boom is Brazilian electric utility CPFL Energia, which serves S o Paulo. As CPFL races to meet electricity demand, the utility looks a lot like a growth stock one that just happens to pay a fat dividend. "You don't find many places in the world where you get that plus a potential 20% growth story," says Edward Guinness, comanager of the Guinness Atkinson Alternative Energy fund, which invests in power companies around the world, including CPFL.

Higher electricity prices are fueling some of CPFL's growth, and its bottom line is getting a boost from two years of interest-rate cuts by Brazil's central bank, which lowers payments on the company's debt. The company has also generated profit from consolidating smaller electricity distributors in S o Paulo and making them more efficient. And as the government recognizes the need for investment in Brazil's power infrastructure, it has allowed utilities to keep some of the rewards of lower costs and lower interest rates, enabling them to boost their returns.

CPFL has pledged to pay out 50% of its earnings in the form of dividends, and it has been doing much better than that lately returning a hefty 95% of its profit to shareholders in 2006. But fair warning: A spokesperson says CPFL has its eye on two Brazilian utilities. And if the company makes a big acquisition, Bear Stearns Latin American utility analyst Rowe Michels thinks CPFL might have to trim the dividend to help pay for it, though he still expects a generous 75% payout ratio. Call it the price of growth.

Dividend Yield: 3.4%

Thirty years ago AXA was a regional French insurance company with big aspirations. Led by then-CEO Claude B b ar, it snapped up French rivals that weren't state-owned and followed up with a global acquisition spree. Today AXA's annual revenue of $133 billion makes it one of the world's largest insurance companies, with U.S. operations that include the former MONY and Equitable insurance companies.

Covering the world with insurance wasn't enough. With an eye on aging populations in North America, Europe and Asia, AXA is ramping up the sales of retirement products, such as variable annuities. They can be controversial as an investment, but variable annuities are a growing and highly profitable business. Paris-based AXA is expected to report that earnings per share grew 11% in 2007. The company has an ambitious goal of increasing earnings per share by nearly 15% a year through 2012 and has boosted its dividend every year since 2002.

Still, as a financial-services company, AXA didn't escape the subprime mortgage mess, with $4 billion in subprime assets. Although it might have to take a charge to reflect their lower market value, it says the overall quality of those assets "remains sound." And insurance companies haven't exactly been investor favorites lately. But at 10 times projected 2008 earnings, the stock is at bargain-basement prices, and its rich and growing dividend should compensate if the shares tread water for a while longer. Plus, AXA throws off enough cash to continue to buy back shares up to 10% under the latest plan. That's good news for investors you could almost call it an insurance policy.

Dividend Yield: 6.8%

When Hungarian phone company Magyar Telekom went public in 1997, just 8% of Hungarians had a cellphone account. Five years later cellphone penetration was up to 66%, according to research firm Analysys. Today it's over 90%, but Hungarians still aren't finished buying cellphones. With many owning more than one phone, Analysys projects that penetration will be 110% by 2012. Magyar, which has nearly half the Hungarian market, is cashing in, with 13% earnings per share growth expected in 2008. It's also spreading the wealth. Over the past three years, investors including 59% shareholder Deutsche Telekom have received around 80% of cash generated by the company.

Once part of the state-owned Hungarian Post, Magyar is putting its bureaucratic past behind it. It's conducting a restructuring program that's expected to cut 15% of its 12,000 employees. The $5.7 billion company is also diversifying beyond its home turf, having acquired cellphone providers in Macedonia and Montenegro. Now it's one of several bidders for Slovenia Telekom, the state-owned telephone company in the former Yugoslav country. That could boost operating profit by about 30%, according to Anna Bossong, Central and Eastern Europe telecom analyst at UniCredit Global Research.

Magyar's rich yield reflects its lower valuation compared with other European telecoms, a discount partly due to the Hungarian government's 2007 austerity program, which raised taxes to combat the growing deficit. That crimped consumer spending and spooked investors. The result is that the stock sells at about 10 times 2008 earnings, compared with an average of 16 times earnings for other European telecoms.

Dividend Yield: 4.4%

Three years ago Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing was like a lot of other technology companies: Despite steady earnings and a strong balance sheet, it didn't pay a dividend. Investors wanted a piece of the pie, and the company obliged with an annual payout of seven cents a share. Fast-forward to 2007 and the chip maker has increased the dividend more than sixfold, to 45 cents a share, giving it a dividend yield rivaling that of many banks.

The $54 billion Taiwanese company makes microchips that power computers and other devices, a business that allows it to generate high-single-digit to low-double-digit profit growth and, more important, strong cash flow. The company plans to trim capital spending, after shelling out $5 billion in the past two years. Analysts say that shouldn't jeopardize its edge in the industry, because rivals have also been cutting capital spending. And with management saying that it plans to return excess cash to shareholders, that could mean an even higher dividend in the future.

Still, the near-term outlook could be volatile if PC and electronic-device makers turn cautious amid economic uncertainty. If there is a slowdown, UMB Scout International fund manager Jim Moffett says that Taiwan Semiconductor's diverse customer base means it's well positioned for a rebound as companies invest in new technology to boost productivity. Scott Schluederberg, portfolio manager at Hardesty Capital Management, expects the stock to rise 30%, to $13, in the next year. Add to that the hefty dividend yield and it's as attractive as an emerging-market highflier, with less risk.

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