By JACK HOUGH
Glamour stocks might be losing their glow.
Amazon (AMZN),
Amazon has lost about 9% of its value since Tuesday, when it reported fast third-quarter sales growth but shriveled profit margins. Netflix shares have plunged by one-third since the company announced on Monday that it lost 800,000 subscribers last quarter. And Apple is down 4% since Oct. 18, when it reported strong sales and earnings but fell short of Wall Street forecasts for the first time in seven years.
That could be a coincidence, or it could signal a long-awaited shift in the types of stocks that outperform. Cautious investors should prune their portfolios of high-expectations shares just in case.
Researchers have long studied the relationship between "value" and "growth" stocks. The difference has mostly to do with price. Value stocks are cheap relative to fundamental measures of value like earnings and the book value of assets. Growth stocks are expensive, usually because buyers anticipate rapid growth in earnings or book value.
Long-term investing favors value stocks. Between 1990 and 2010, the cheapest one-tenth of U.S. stocks relative to projected earnings outperformed the most expensive one-tenth by more than 12 percentage points a year, according to Brandes Investment Partners, a San Diego money manager.
But growth stocks sometimes reign for years at a time. Over five years through September, the S&P 500 Pure Growth index, of which Amazon, Netflix and Apple are members, has returned 3.9% a year, versus a 1.5% yearly loss for its value sibling. (Over the past month, Pure Value has outperformed.)
It might seem odd that investors favored high-price shares during years that included a financial crisis and slowing economic growth, but Brandes analysts Nick Magnuson says that fits the historic pattern. Growth stocks outperform when greed is excessive, like during the dotcom bubble, but they also outperform when fear is excessively high, as it has been in recent years.
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"When investors are fearful, they start to worry that the flaws that are inherent in value stocks could be fatal, and they want to hold comfortable, popular stocks," he says. "One fear subsides, investors realize that value stocks have gotten too cheap to ignore."
That shift is overdue, says Mr. Magnuson. The valuation gap between the market's cheapest and most expensive stocks is unusually wide, and in the past that has signalled a good time to buy value stocks, he says.
Savita Subramanian, a strategist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, agrees with the thesis but not the timing. Long-term investors should favor value stocks, because 80% of the return of stocks is explained by valuation, she says. But growth stocks might continue their run for another year because concerns over budget cuts, slowing economic growth and next year's elections could leave investors wanting the comfort of popular shares.
There's one thing Mr. Magnuson and Ms. Subramanian agree that investors should buy now, however, and that's value stocks with handsome dividend yields. "If you think about it, the two things that are scarce right now for investors are growth and yield," says Ms. Subramanian. "So while I think growth will outperform over the next year, I also think stable dividends will be in high demand."
Whether growth stocks will give up their lead now or a year from now, it's a good time for investors to search their portfolios for excessively pricey shares. The S&P 500 index recently traded at 13 times projected 2011 earnings, but 43 of its members are more than twice as expensive. Don't go by reputation alone, because stocks can change camps quickly. Apple now sells for just 12 times earnings despite its fast growth and considerable cash hoard. Starbucks is 28 times earnings, after tripling in price in three years. Amazon remains over 100 times earnings.
As for what to buy, Ms. Subramanian's research points to companies like Aflac, Cardinal Health, General Dynamics, E.I. DuPont and Chevron. They boast stable earnings and more cash on hand than usual, which suggests an ability to increase their dividends.
For mutual fund investors, the T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth fund
Two long-term trends bode particularly well for stocks and funds like these, according to Ms. Subramanian. The percentage of S&P 500 companies paying dividends has fallen over the past 25 years, and the retirement of the baby boomers has begun. That means demand for investment income will likely rise against limited supply, boosting the appeal of dividend-paying stocks.



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