ByDAREN FONDA
After months of histrionic> headlines about socialized medicine and Congress s continuous plodding on health care legislation, it s not surprising that some investors have turned skittish on health care stocks. After all, reforms of any kind, some analysts say, could hurt the profits of health care companies, especially Big Pharma firms, which rely on promising but pricey blockbuster drugs.
Some pros, however, have written a new prescription for health care investing, anticipating that whatever legislation emerges will create a host of new winners. They include a number of hospitals and generic-drug makers, which will see more customers solely because more people will be insured. Medical supply and research firms could come out ahead too, because the government has earmarked billions for health records and scientific studies. And many other firms still have demographics on their side starting in 2011 the first wave of baby boomers hits age 65, and their health care needs will rise. No company will be completely unscathed, says Mark Oelschlager, manager of the Live Oak Health Sciences fund. But you can find good opportunities.
Best of all for health care investors is that all the talk of reform has depressed the stock valuations of many firms. True, many drug companies aren t growing as fast as they were a few years ago, and some insurers now have razor-thin profit margins. But the industry is still packed with steady earners paying attractive dividends. In fact, health care stocks are expected to be the biggest contributor of earnings among the firms in the Standard & Poor s 500 index this year, accounting for nearly 20 percent of total profits, says S&P senior index analyst Howard Silverblatt.
Some health care companies don t even need any new legislation to benefit from the drive to change health care. The government earmarked $19 billion for digitizing medical records in the stimulus package passed in early 2009. That will help hospitals many of which are still keeping patient information in big manila folders to upgrade computers and software. That should benefit McKesson, already a leader in advanced health care information systems.
The reform drive also has put a new emphasis on reining in spending, which could help firms that take costs out of the system. Hospitals, for instance, are trying to cut down on costly readmissions of patients, and companies that can help could see their business surge. One company, RehabCare Group, now runs rehab centers that can treat all sorts of patients, whether they re stroke victims or folks recovering from hip surgery. And it s developing systems to track their progress and make sure they don t need a return trip to the hospital.
Does this mean all health care stocks are surefire winners? Hardly. It could take years for some of the changes to shake out, and some investors admit they re on edge. Everyone s on pins and needles, says Rosanne Ott, manager of the Alger Health Sciences fund. But Ott and other pros say that with so much uncertainty hovering over the sector and prices so depressed it s a good time to invest.
The Picks
McKesson
is best known as a distributor of pharmaceutical and medical supplies, but it s also a leader in installing advanced health care information technology systems in hospitals and clinics. More hospitals are switching over to electronic medical records. Plus, this year s federal stimulus package set aside $19 billion for health care professionals to upgrade their record systems.
Teva Pharmaceutical
The Israeli company acquired a big rival, Barr Pharmaceuticals, last year and now has 22 percent of the U.S. generic-drug market, the largest share in the business. Teva (TEVA)
RehabCare Group
Based in St. Louis, the firm operates 11 rehabilitation hospitals and centers and sends therapists to more than 1,200 nursing homes and hospitals around the country. The firm has been making acquisitions and deals with rehab centers to offer many types of therapy. RehabCare (RHB)
TWO BONUS PICKS
Express Scripts
Pharmacy benefits manager Express Scripts (ESRX) ,
Life Technologies
The government is giving $8 billion to research labs over the next few years to help scientists discover new drugs and therapies. Those labs will need equipment to conduct experiments, which is where Life Technologies (LIFE)



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