How Strong Is the U.S. Recovery?

GOOD MORNING. Asian markets finished mixed, with shares rising in Japan but falling in Hong Kong and China. European shares are falling, and US futures are pointing to a lower open.

Just how long is this recovery going to take? As anticipated, the Fed s Open Market Committee left interest rates unchanged in its statement of monetary policy yesterday. But investors may not have been expecting the central bank s somewhat gloomier take on the recovery. The Fed said the recovery was proceeding, but that financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth due to problems abroad.

The Fed also didn t make further mention of the scheduled end of quantitative easing programs. What they left out was the most significant part of the statement, says Doug Roberts, the chief investment strategist at ChannelCapitalResearch.com. The Fed appears to be leaving open the option of returning to the market to buy up Treasuries or other forms of debt, Roberts says.

Banks certainly do face challenges both abroad and at home, with so many people underwater on their mortgages, Roberts says. This week's report on initial jobless claims, due out at 8:30 this morning, is expected to show slight improvement. Jobs reports have been coming in weaker than expected, however, as an increase in temporary hires hasn't led to a pickup in permanent hires, Roberts says. Businesses may be waiting until the economic situation is clearer, he says.

Over the summer, trading volume is likely to be low and stocks are likely to bounce around in a fairly wide range, Roberts says. As the year goes on and earnings comparisons get tougher, the market will be vulnerable to a sudden shock in one direction or another, although midterm elections in the fall will provide more clarity on whether further government stimulus is on the way, he says.

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