How to Fight the Debt Debate Blues

Focus on sectors that should do well regardless of what lawmakers decide.

Washington -- and just about everyone else -- is in a tizzy over the debt ceiling. Ratings firms are threatening to cut the U.S.'s top-notch AAA rating, politicians are scrambling for some sort of solution, and the markets are volatile.

The fiscal issues and the associated political dysfunction are definitely important. But they aren't everything. With such a huge amount of attention focused on windy budgetary debates, now might be a good time to focus on things that will matter regardless of what happens on the Potomac. Or anywhere else for that matter. With U.S. growth limping along, fiscal challenges raging in Europe and wars flickering from North Africa to the Middle East, the menu of troubles has grown in recent weeks.

At times like this, food and energy state to look more enticing. People need to eat, and the global economy needs lots of the black stuff to keep humming. And demand for both seems likely to keep on rising.

Crop prices have been on the rise over the past few years, and oil, while down from its highs earlier this year, is expected to become quite dear as we roll into 2012. Both commodities are facing concerns about current and future supplies as demand inexorably rises.

United Nations food officials acknowledge that elevated crop prices are likely to persist for some time. Farm income has risen so high that farmers are no longer qualifying for federal subsidy payments, according to The Wall Street Journal. The story added: "A fundamental upward shift in crop prices is creating the real possibility that farmers won't ever again qualify for the primary form of farm subsidy."

On the oil side of the ledger, Goldman Sachs forecast in late May that prices will rise this year and that supply constraints will trigger sharply higher prices in 2012. In early July, it reiterated that forecast, saying: "In our view, it is only a matter of time before inventories and OPEC spare capacity become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices to restrain demand, keeping it in line with available supply." The firm's 12-month price target for West Texas Intermediate crude is $126 a barrel, well above the current price of about $97.

There are several ways to invest in the food and energy story. On the food side, opportunities include equipment, seeds and fertilizer. A number of these stocks (like much of the market) have trended lower during the fiscal follies in Washington.

Deere & Co. (DE), a maker of farm equipment, which traded at $99 in April, has since slid to $80. There is concern that farmers have already bought plenty of new combines, but J.P. Morgan thinks that concern is overdone. Moreover, it notes that Deere has become a strong player in European implement sales. It sees Deere at $109, with its earnings on Aug. 17 serving as a positive catalyst. CNH Global, which sells New Holland and Case farm equipment, has had a similar decline and, like Deere, trades at a reasonable valuation, with a trailing 12-month price/earnings multiple in the low teens, below the 16.55 P/E of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index.

On the seed front, Monsanto (MON) (which also makes lots of herbicide) is a popular choice -- perhaps a bit too popular. Its shares trade at about 26 times trailing earnings. Still, Goldman Sachs recently boosted Monsanto to a "conviction buy" rating with a price target of $96.

Fertilizer companies such as Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT), Mosaic (MOS) and CF Industries Holdings (CF) have had tremendous runs over the past 12 months, with Potash up 86%, Mosaic up 55% and CF up 107% during that period. Despite those strong gains, investors remain upbeat about the stocks, citing the heavy need for fertilizer in a world that needs a lot more food. Potash reported a 75% jump in second-quarter earnings on Thursday, and its shares jumped. The company said fertilizer shortages were keeping prices -- and margins -- high.

Not everything is grand in the agriculture sector. Corn Products International (CPO) reported a strong quarter on Thursday, but also warned that rising corn prices could start to create challenges for its sweetener and starch businesses. Its shares slumped.

Among energy companies, the "fertilizer" companies are the ones that hunt for oil and help in its extraction. Among the leaders in this group are Schlumberger (SLB), Baker Hughes (BHI) and Halliburton (HAL) . HSBC said earlier in the week that Schlumberger (and others) are starting to see stronger pricing for their services. In its earnings report on July 22, Schlumberger also noted a strong position in the booming natural gas/shale extraction business in North America.

Baker Hughes (BH) reported second-quarter profits Monday that tripled the year ago level. Halliburton also reported a strong quarter. Both companies, like Schlumberger, are benefiting from the natural gas/shale extraction boom and the amped-up search to find and extract more oil.

Among bigger oil companies, giants like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) should benefit from higher oil prices. The companies trade at more reasonable valuations than the Schlumberger group (about 10 times trailing earnings compared with 20 times), but also face different challenges. For instance, Exxon Mobil spent a whopping $4 billion in the U.S. in the second quarter as it sought to expand its shale gas and oil operations.

Another option might be Hess (HES) . It reported an uneven quarter, citing production problems in North Dakota (nasty weather) and Libya (civil war). At $70 a share, the company trades at about nine times trailing earnings, making it one of the more attractively priced bigger oil plays. Even Goldman Sachs, which rates the company neutral, has a price target of $105 on the stock. If the Libyan civil war doesn't last forever, the shares could pop.

DaveKansas blogs at The Wall Street Journal's MarketBeat. Email: dave.kansas@wsj.com

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