By JACK HOUGH
Sure, Europe's markets are in turmoil. But bargains are beginning to beckon. To find them, look for companies with European headquarters but global operations.
Markets across the continent have plunged in recent months over fears that heavy debtors, especially Greece but also Portugal, Italy and Ireland, will throw the euro zone into crisis much the same way strained banks did the U.S. in 2008. The MSCI Europe index has fallen 27% in three months, versus a 14% decline for the MSCI U.S. index.
That has left European shares looking cheap relative to fundamental measures of value. The MSCI Europe index trades at 11 times trailing earnings and carries a 4.1% dividend yield, versus a price/earnings ratio of 14 and a dividend yield of 2.1% for its U.S. counterpart.
Of course, some European companies, notably banks, come with big risks. They hold more than $100 billion in exposure to Greece alone through bonds and derivatives, according to estimates by UBS (UBS)
But strategists say there are opportunities in the telecom, technology, energy, consumer-staples and drug sectors among companies with solid balance sheets, plenty of cash flow and strong dividends.
"Investors might be overstating the macro and understating the micro," says Gary Motyl, chief investment officer of Templeton Global Equity Group. "There have been sharp declines even among global operators that have the financial flexibility to insulate themselves."
Consider Spain's Telefonica (TEF),
Sweden's Telefon AB L.M. Ericsson (ERIC),
Mr. Motyl also recommends Swiss drug maker Roche Holding (ROG.VX),
Investors who shop Europe for stocks should use recession tactics, wrote Gary Baker, chief European equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a client note on Wednesday. According to back-testing of economic cycles and stock returns since 1992, it is a good time to move out of growth stocks (ones with rapid past and expected earnings increases) and into value stocks (ones with modest prices relative to earnings, dividends and other measures of value), because economic indicators including gross-domestic-product forecasts and business surveys are deteriorating.
Mr. Baker points to British American Tobacco (BTI),
Total (TOT),
If European earnings disappoint, high-yield stocks should outperform precisely because they tend to have less optimistic growth forecasts to begin with, wrote Peter Sullivan, a strategist with HSBC Bank, in a Friday note to clients.
And the brewing storm, while frightening, should prove less severe than the 2008 financial crisis, according to Richard Taylor, head of European equity research at Jefferies. First, he says, companies are financially stronger now than then. Second, authorities have the benefit of lessons learned during the first crisis, including the importance of keeping credit markets functioning.
If gloom is a buy signal, it is time to scoop up worthy stocks from which others are fleeing indiscriminately. "This is the most risk aversion I've seen in my 26-year career," Mr. Taylor says.
—Jack Hough is a columnist at SmartMoney.com. Email: jack.hough@dowjones.com


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