ByWILL SWARTSDAN BURROWS
The natives are getting restless> -- and by natives we mean that peculiar genus known as the U.S. equity market investor. After a four-day rally petered out on Monday, the market managed to regain a toehold (albeit a shallow one) and lift itself back up Tuesday. Whether for good or for ill, anxious, impatient investors are acting as if the market s subtle move upward may be a sign that we're entering a sustained rally.
To be sure, experts say it makes sense to maintain some exposure to equities so you can recoup your losses faster. Studies show that within six months of a new bull market, more than a quarter of the gains have already been booked. "Taking all of your current holdings and going to cash will certainly let you sleep better tonight," says Joe Clark, managing partner of Financial Enhancement Group, a financial planner in Anderson, Ind. "In reality, we have watched people not be able to sleep with the market volatility and then go to cash, to only watch them lose sleep in fear that it goes up without them."
But some investors are doing a lot more than just trying to stay in the game. In fact, they may be throwing high-risk Hail Mary passes hoping to win it all on one bet. From trading triple-levered ETFs to betting big on beaten down blue chips, some investors are breaking the cardinal rule of diversification. Experts say optimism is one thing and irrational exuberance is another, especially when this supposed rally seems tenuous at best. Here then is a look at some of the riskier bets impatient investors are making -- and ways to avoid the mistakes that may come with them.
Do-It-Yourselfers
After seeing their holdings shrink 30%, 40% or even 50% last year, many investors are firing their financial advisors and taking matters into their own hands. According to filings, discount brokerage site TD Ameritrade (AMTD)
We are all for investors taking a more proactive role with their money. But remember, picking stocks and mutual funds for a retirement account can be a full-time job. We think the conventional wisdom applies during rocky markets: Pay up for the expertise of a seasoned financial advisor who will build you a diversified portfolio. After all, when you're sitting on the beach this summer you want to worry about the waves in front of you not the ones on Wall Street. If we haven t convinced you, see our annual broker survey.
Betting on Small Long Shots
Anxious (or perhaps "greedy" is a better word) investors are always looking for the stock market s hottest shares -- the ones that will jump 50%, or better yet, even double their money. That casino-like mentality was the beating heart of the tech boom, and it's also driven rallies in housing and commodities more recently. Of course every bear market is eventually followed by a bull run, so where will the hot sectors and stocks be found this time around? Restless investors seem to be heading into small-cap stocks -- which also happen to be some of the riskiest equities -- hoping that history repeats itself. Small caps, which have market capitalizations of less than $1 billion, historically tend to lead the broader market out of downturns. And so far, at least, they appear to be doing it this time, too. Our stock screener tool lists 4,078 small-company stocks. A little more than 750 of them have posted gains of 5% year to date. The S&P 500, meanwhile, has sloughed off 16%.
Should you start stocking up on small caps? Maybe with a big caveat. Most investors are already aware of the historical argument for small caps and they ve jumped in and pushed up prices. Also, even plain-vanilla total stock market index funds have a healthy helping of these shares. That s plenty for most retirement accounts.
Leveraged ETFs
Two of the ETF world s most-popular products track the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 indexes. So it s perfectly acceptable to see those funds garnering the most trading volume on a daily basis. But what s the ProShares UltraShort Financials (SKF)
The financial sector remains at the epicenter of this bear market, but that hasn t stopped fund families Rydex, ProShares and Direxion from launching ETFs that try to profit from its daily swings and from investors turning them into wildly popular products. These so-called leveraged and short funds use a series of derivative products to post two or three times the returns of their underlying indexes or two or three times the inverse returns of those same benchmarks. In other words, impatient (and extremely aggressive) traders can triple their long positions in financials with Direxion s Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)
However, this could turn out to be a sucker s bet. These funds are favored by hedge funds so they swing wildly in price most days. "Big up or down moves in the markets are often quickly reversed leading to a volatile, roller-coaster ride that fails to inspire the confidence of long-term investors, says Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist for LPL Financial. If you don t have the stomach stick with the around 15% exposure index funds have to this sector.
Blue Chips: The New Blue Light Specials
A brave -- or na ve -- stock market novice could build an impressive-sounding portfolio stocked with nothing but the most venerable blue-chip names for just a hundred bucks. As of Tuesday, that paper bill with the portrait of Ben Franklin on it could let you buy shares in plenty of companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average -- at Wal-Mart-type prices. A share of General Electric (GE)
Betting on the Next Big Thing
The Nifty Fifty, junk bonds, Internet start-ups the investing landscape is littered with the supposed next big things and the investors who lost a fortune on them. About this time last year the price of oil stood around a $100 a barrel -- and still had another 50% rally to come until finally topping out midsummer. Some Wall Street wags were even predicting that black gold would soon fetch $200. That made alternative energy, namely solar and wind-power companies, among the hottest of hot commodities. After all, as the price of oil rises, demand for alternative energy picks up and the economics of the business become more viable. Alternative-energy ETFs such as PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (PBW)



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