There are thousands of newsletters, magazines, pundits and prognosticators more than willing to opine on where they think the markets might be headed. Sometimes we re right and sometimes we re dead wrong. But after many years trading everything from index options to microcap stocks, I ve yet to find any service or strategist who is right all the time. I m certainly not.

When we stop guessing where the market may go -- and start observing where it is now -- a portfolio will almost manage itself. When you buy a stock that subsequently declines, the holding by definition becomes a smaller part of your asset allocation. Conversely, when you buy a stock that rises, it becomes a larger and more prominent part of your portfolio. Over time, losing bets have a smaller impact on the bottom line. Winning investments, when permitted to run, become more dominant.

That process, of listening to the market, maximizing the bets that turn out and minimizing those that don t, is the essence of how portfolio management works. Because nobody is right all the time, that discipline is the oft-overlooked secret of how real fortunes are made.

A Far-East Idea With World-Wide Reach

Among the Japanese stocks I ve been following that have clawed their way back from multiyear lows is Mitsui & Company (MITSY), a global and expansive conglomerate involved in a diversity of businesses ranging from commodities and energy to chemicals, food, infrastructure and consumer services.

A Harbinger of Global Growth?

Mitsui & Co. 2 years

Mitsui & Co. is one of what s known in Japan as sogo shosha, large multinational trading firms involved in transacting large volumes of raw commodities, real estate development, logistics, finance and consumer goods. To that end, Mitsui is an effective barometer of the global economy. When products and materials are being traded and moved on almost any continent in the world, Mitsui likely has a part to play in the transaction.

The high-priced shares now trade for $275, roughly half of the value they fetched as recently as June 2008, and only trade an average of fewer than 6,000 shares a day. While individual investors often shy away from high-priced stocks, with the Nikkei 225 now at its highest point this year, this bet on a strengthening economy, held as part of my investment fund, could well end up surprising investors across the globe.

Those Were the Days

Miss the 1990s? For a nostalgic trip back in time to the last great bull market, check out YouTube s collection of clips from The $treet, Fox s stock-market drama that aired in 2000 just as equity markets and the Internet bubble, were topping out. This short-lived show, which only aired for six episodes, features a booming IPO market, plenty of testosterone-fueled trader-talk and a lovely Jennifer Connelly.

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