Is the Stock Market Correction Over?

After a volatile five-day span in which the Dow lost 531 points, a 5% slide, and officially entered correction territory, Thursday morning s bounce was welcome news for investors. But does the rally mean the correction is over and the bull market is back on track?

For individual investors, attempting to answer that question may be more trouble than it s worth. Most investors underperform the major indexes and even the very mutual funds they invest in precisely because they overreact to short-term moves, says Roger Streit, a certified financial planner with Key Financial Solutions.

The stock market can have such fast moves that someone could decide to sell in the morning, and by the end of the day they re going to look like an idiot, Streit says. Investors will do better investing for the long term, and viewing short-term corrections as buying opportunities, he says.

Still, it s hard not to wonder where the market s roller-coaster is headed next. SmartMoney asked 12 market watchers for their predictions on the market s next move. Here s what they have to say about whether we ve seen the bottom of this correction:

Kevin Mahn, chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh:
We re going to see a series of starts and stops throughout 2010. The market clearly doesn t have a direction right now because of all the political and macro-economic uncertainty, Mahn says. Because the S&P 500 has not yet broken through its 200-day moving average with more than a 5% margin of error, Mahn says it s not yet clear that we re in correction mode; he s waiting for the index to drop below 1048. Mahn says the underlying economic picture is bleak, but the market doesn t have a clear short-term direction. He s watching the headlines, rather than technical indicators, for clues.

Ethan Anderson, senior portfolio manager at Rehmann Financial:
Based on the news we have right now, I do feel we ve seen the bottom, at least in the near term, Anderson says. Absent significant new bad news, Anderson says the markets will likely be range-bound for the rest of the year. He expects to see percentage moves in the single digits in either direction for the major indexes for 2010 most likely a small gain, he says. But it s also possible that we ve already seen the market s highs for the year, he says.

Tom Samuels, portfolio manager for the Palantir Fund:
After May s sharp decline, the market was due for Thursday's bounce, Samuels says. The gains should continue through next week, but then we ll likely see declines through June, he says. Samuels says the Dow could fall below 9000 in the near term and that isn t his worst-case scenario. I think May is about the market shifting its focus from the economic recovery story to a debt-driven reality, which is not so rosy a picture, Samuels says. If sovereign debt issues aren t quickly resolved, the market could break its 2009 lows this year, he says.

Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist for Channel Capital Research:
The S&P 500 will likely bounce around between pre-Lehman levels of about 1200 and current levels around 1040 or 1045, Roberts says. Investors should watch for a breakthrough on either side of that range. The determining factor will be whether Europe is stabilized, he says.

Marc Pado, US Market Strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald:
In the short term, 9835 should be a support level for the Dow, Pado says. Based on his technical analysis, the worst-case scenario would be 8864, which we likely won t see unless the euro falls to parity with the dollar, or Germany quits the euro zone, he says. Pado says the risk now is the market breaking that 9835 support level, which could happen if the euro falls below its current support level of 1.1827 to the dollar, or the European Commission fails to come up with strict rules in their planned proposal in mid-June. Of course, there could always be a war with Iran, or invasion of space aliens. I count nothing out, Pado says.

Paul Nolte, managing director of Dearborn Partners:
Based on technical analysis of the charts, markets have successfully tested February s low on the S&P 500 of about 1040, Nolte says. The next support level would be around 960, and then around 900, he says. In the short term, Nolte says he expects a rally to 1125, but if that fails, then we get to the downside targets quicker.

Fred Dickson, chief market strategist for The Davidson Companies:
I m looking at 9500 as a support level for the DJIA, Dickson says. If the euro keeps falling, we could test that level it is about 5% below [Wednesday s] closing index value.

Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James:
Unless we re in a crash, the market is in a bottoming phase that may get completed with the rally today, Saut says. We should have seen the lows in this correction and will likely get a rally from here, he says. Bad news on the situation in Europe, including a nearly failed German bond auction and rumors that China was selling European bonds, sparked the drop Wednesday, and China s Thursday denial of those rumors set the stage for a rally, Saut says.

Mike Rubino, president of Rubino Financial:
The Dow will likely test its flash-crash lows, but if it doesn t fall below about 9800, we should see another bounce in the next two or three months before a longer-term decline to 3800, Rubino says. Rubino says he d expected first-quarter GDP to be revised downward, and expects disappointing second-quarter results. With further waves of mortgage resets coming this fall and next fall, the economy will continue to stagnate, he says. The Great Depression started as a recession, Rubino says.

Jamie Cox, managing partner of Harris Financial Group:
I think that we have seen the bottom of this correction, and I think that the markets are going to be in a sideways consolidation mode for the rest of the summer, Cox says. Cox says he sees manufacturing data and hiring trends strengthening, suggesting that economic activity will continue to pick up. As for Europe, Cox compares the debt crisis to BP s efforts to stop the Gulf oil spill: I think the European Central Bank has already capped the well, so to speak, he says. In the absence of more bad news from Europe, the market will trade sideways as investors start to accept that the problem has been contained, Cox says. The recent drop has been the result of currency fluctuations forcing traders to unwind their carry trades, which creates short-term volatility, he says.

Frank Ingarra, portfolio manager at Hennessy Funds:
We just think it s a pullback here. There s a lot of headline risk going on, Ingarra says. In the short term, the market will continue to be volatile until these headline risks abate, he says, but further growth is on the way. Investors should focus on buying quality names and ignore short-term fluctuations, he says.

Brett D Arcy, chief investment officer at CBIZ Wealth Management:
There s a pretty nice underpinning to the market at this level, from both a technical and a fundamental standpoint, D Arcy says. We ve likely seen the bottom of this correction and could see the Dow above 12000 by the end of the year, he says. Negative headlines have been holding the market back, but as the bad news fades, continued improvement in employment and corporate earnings should drive the market higher, he says.

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