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Investors grappling for a handle on the Japanese earthquake catastrophe have mainly used the 1995 Kobe earthquake as a template. In the fury of the current disaster, fed by an evolving nuclear crisis, such comparisons feel forced.

But in the middle of an intense crisis, it's important to appreciate that things do eventually start to right themselves. And investors need to keep a cool head in order to deal effectively with that reality. Historical events can be useful guideposts.

Japanese stocks have gotten crushed in the wake of the earthquake, with shares falling 6% on Monday and more than 10% on Tuesday. Major companies, such as Hitachi, Toyota (TM) and Sony (SNE), have had to curtail production and their share prices have plummeted.

The yen has rallied in anticipation that Japan will repatriate cash to pay for reconstruction. Thankfully, Japanese bond yields remain very low, with 10-year JGBs yielding 1.2%, compared with 3.26% for similar U.S. Treasurys. If those yields remain low, it will make funding reconstruction and rebuilding more affordable.

Many analysts are still waiting for more information before making a call on Japan. S&P, for instance, said it needed more data before it could assess Japan's credit rating, though it believes the impact will be "significantly higher" than the Kobe quake. In contrast, Fitch Ratings doesn't see the earthquake as a "trigger" for a downgrade.

As for the comparison with the 1995 quake in Kobe, let's first outline what is different this time:

The nuclear crisis is very difficult to gauge. The impact could be long lasting and hamper recovery and rebuilding efforts.

Japan's fiscal picture is far worse. Its debt has risen to 225% of GDP and ahead of the quake it had a fiscal deficit of 10% of GDP -- one of the highest in the developed world.

Japan's economic activity has continued to slump and is perhaps not as robust as it was in 1995.

The area struck has suffered greater infrastructure damage than in the case of Kobe, primarily because of the tsunami that did massive damage in the region northeast of Tokyo.

So are there still lessons to be drawn from the Kobe earthquake that would apply today? Nomura Securities, Japan's largest investment bank, thinks so. It wrote on Sunday:

"We think the Kobe earthquake of January 1995 provides a good reference point. We believe recent major earthquakes in Japan, rather than overseas, provide a better benchmark for assessing the economic impact of the disaster, as characteristics specific to Japan are likely to have a large say in how long consumers and companies refrain from normal activity or what kind of stimulus measures the government decides to implement."

Among Nomura's major takeaways:

The short-term impact on Japan's overall economy was not as large as anticipated in the wake of the Kobe quake.

The longer-term impact (positive) of rebuilding efforts showed up in economic indicators later than anticipated.

Operating rates in unaffected areas of Japan are not at high capacities, making it likely that work down in the affected areas will be able to shift to other locations.

The government moved slower than expected to inject fiscal stimulus following the Kobe earthquake.

Nomura argues that because of greater infrastructure damage, the rebound in the economy may take longer than was the case with Kobe. It had forecast that Japan would emerge from its current economic "lull" in the first quarter this year. It now sees a recovery occurring in the latter part of 2011.

The bank also is more optimistic that the quake will ease political tensions and prompt the government to move more quickly than it did following the Kobe quake. It notes that the Bank of Japan has already been very active injecting stimulus into the financial system and may yet do more, even with short-term interest rates already essentially at zero.

Barclays is taking a slightly darker view than Nomura, estimating earlier today that the quake damages could amount to 3% of gross domestic product (15 trillion yen).

Barclays also points out that the area affected by the earthquake is more of a "trading" economy than the Kobe region was, meaning that it has more interplay with greater Japan. That would mean that its problems could have a broader negative impact than the Kobe quake did.

It's too early to figure out exactly how events will unfold in Japan post-quake. Among some key things to watch for:

Resolution of the nuclear issue. It is difficult to imagine Japanese stocks recovering while the nuclear catastrophe remains unresolved.

Details of government spending on reconstruction and rebuilding.

Indications of auto companies starting up plants, many of which are now idle.

Signs that electricity capacity is recovering.

A weakening yen. For an export-driven economy, the recent strength in the yen is unwelcome.

While it may go against our thirst for speedy answers, the Japanese picture may take some weeks to crystallize.

Dave Kansas blogs at The Wall Street Journal's MarketBeat.