ByELIZABETH TROTTA
The manufacturing sector> has been sending mixed messages.
On one hand, second-quarter earnings among manufacturers were strong. Companies such as 3M (MMM) and United Technologies (UTX) topped analysts estimates and raised their full-year views. General Electric (GE) also beat the Street.
On the other hand, manufacturing indexes in the U.S. and China fell slightly in July. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing purchasing managers index dropped to 54.3, its lowest level in eight months.
The July data were consistent with a deceleration of global manufacturing activity following a post-recession boom seen over the past year, said Joseph Lupton, global economist at JPMorgan.
So which data best describe what s going in the world s factories? Perhaps a little perspective is in order.
The JPMorgan index reading was still consistent with a solid rate of expansion, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a manufacturing report. Signs of improvement in operating conditions have emerged each month since July 2009, and gains in output, new orders and employment have been underlying the recovery, according to the report.
So although a loss of manufacturing momentum will be quite noticeable, the data confirm that the pace of growth will remain solid into the second half of the year, Lupton said.
Here s what to two strategists had to say about the sector s outlook for the rest of the year.
Who s talking: Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management
The gist: Manufacturing has slowed, but now the sector stands to benefit from a reacceleration of growth.
Tightening forces during the first half of the year weighed on global demand. Among the biggest factors: The European debt crisis caused credit spreads to widen, and the Chinese government spent most of last year tightening.
These forces, particularly China reining in its stimulus, slowed the pace of the global recovery, Paulsen says. Now, a reversal is apparent. Spreads have tightened. Commodity prices and the dollar have reversed. The euro crisis is easing, as is tightening in China.
Particularly in manufacturing, the financial markets are already sniffing out a reacceleration, Paulsen says. Within the stock market, it s being led by base materials, industrials, transports it s good for the economy, and also good for manufacturing.
Who s talking: Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist, Yardeni Research
The gist: Recent manufacturing data weren t as bad as expected, and the sector is still expanding. However, at some point, growth will slow.
Manufacturing activity in China slowed in July, as the government clamped down on property speculation and investment in polluting and energy-intensive factories, Yardeni says. Still, it s looking like a soft landing.
In the West, U.S. manufacturing growth is slowing, but the sector is still expanding at a solid pace, business for European manufacturers is still strong. (The EU manufacturing PMI rose to 56.7 in July, up from 55.6 in June and close to its highest point in three and a half years. China s index fell to 51.2 in July from 52.1 in June, and the U.S. index edged down to 55.5 from 56.2.)
Yardeni cautions that purchase managers indexes which many investors use to handicap the manufacturing sector are cyclical and cannot rise forever. At some point in the business cycle, the current month is as great for business as was the previous month, he says.



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