Mulling Extended Unemployment Benefits

Following weeks of tug-of-war, Senate Democrats and Republicans look set to renew extended unemployment benefits voting perhaps as early as today. If approved, the bill would then move to the House where it has firm support, as well. The bill is expected to pay out about $34 billion to individuals who ve been out of work for six months or more in states with the highest unemployment rates. Senate Republicans who tried to block the vote said they were concerned about adding to the national deficit.

The prospect of extended unemployment benefits underscores the slow pace of the economic recovery, a reality that has been priced into the stock market but could pressure equities further down the road. The sheer length of time that the proposed benefits would cover suggests the employment situation remains stalled. Should the bill become law, individuals who qualify would be able to receive up to 99 weeks of aid. Benefits would be retroactive to June 2, when previously extended benefits had expired.

Some analysts say recent data suggests the employment picture is poised to improve. Productivity is so strong that the economy is growing despite massive increases in the size of government, Brian Wesbury and Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors wrote in a report. They point out that 357,000 private sector jobs were added in the second quarter, up from the 236,000 added during the first quarter. The U.S. is creating jobs, even if the rate of growth is less than previous recoveries [and] profits are still rising, Wesbury and Stein wrote.

For investors, any signal that the unemployment rate will soon drop and that the stock market is under-priced may be a sign of a good time to buy in. The market has so much negativity priced in, that it is cheap on just about any basis, wrote Wesbury and Stein. Alternatively, there could be a short-term buying opportunity for Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) with maturities of ten or more years, which could be especially appealing to fixed-income investors.

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