IF YOU'RE YOUNG,

I suggest you live it up. Because before you know it, you'll be 40-something with a pot belly, back pain, a mortgage and kids. That's the thing about getting older: You know it's coming, but it nevertheless always seems so distant. Then, seemingly without warning, the future arrives.

But the passage of time has its advantages, especially when it comes to investing. The market's slow and patient trends are the ones that matter most. Cataclysmic dates like 9/11 and October '87 are the horrific anomalies, not the norm. Beyond a prudent philosophy, good discipline and regular savings, there's not much more one can do to prepare for such catastrophes. To that end, I choose to focus on and often obsess about the gradual trends that unfold over a lifetime.

Measured, methodical trends get overlooked because on any given day there's nothing too noteworthy to garner our attention. In other words, slow and steady doesn't make the news cycle. And it's that absence of information that keeps most people from taking action and capitalizing on a legitimate trend.

But we are speculators, not chefs, architects or CPAs. And while uncertainty isn't comfortable, we get paid to operate before the information has become perfect and obvious for all to see. It's not our job to know why a market is moving, only that it is moving. That mentality helps me to act even without "visibility" about how events might play out. The idea isn't to read research; rather, it's to try and anticipate what research analysts will be writing months into the future.

It's often within the absence of information, in fact, when investments put in their best performances. When the picture is unclear, our brain tends to fill in the blanks with the most optimistic and appealing scenarios. It's why a striptease is most exciting before a stitch of clothing is removed.

Similarly, a stock is never more exciting than before all the relevant facts have come to light. And it's during those particular moments when the real gravy is often made. Think back to the tech boom: Yahoo, Amazon.com, and eBay all were outstanding investments long before they made a cent of profit.

And as I often like to point out, the most important, and essentially the only, information that should influence decisions is price action. That's what's traded. Everything else is just conversation.

What you don't want to go on is your gut, which is erratic, emotional and oftentimes plain wrong. Back in 1996, I distinctly remember the feeling that Dow 6000 was "too high." Same goes for crude oil. At $25 a barrel, $40 seemed like a pipedream. Now $45 seems like a floor. The ceiling? Who knows.

Under even the most pessimistic of scenarios, who would've thought that Merck could possibly drop so far? Even a few months back, such a plunge would've seemed near impossible. Now the news, or at least some of it, is out. Lo and behold, the stock has already dropped some 40% over the past year. Slow trends will surprise and humble us all.

In the current market, take a look at gold, which has been bolting higher lately even in the absence of clear inflationary indicators. Many investors, even sophisticated institutions, will wait until some government statistic or economic report indicates inflation before garnering the guts to actually participate. By then, how much of the move will have already been made?

When I come across what I believe to be a sound investment opportunity, even in the absence of fundamental news, I decide just exactly what it'll take to spur me into a position. How about you? How far will the dollar have to drop? How far will utilities have to rise? How long will international stocks have to outperform, before Joe Six-Pack actually decides to make a move?

Although the market itself is the final arbiter, when in the midst of a trade, I do my best not to perceive a market as high or low, but only strong or weak. That leads me, in the words of architect Daniel Burnham, to "make no small plans" about how far a dominant trend could persist. Gold was $800 an ounce in the early 1980s. Could it revisit those highs? Could the Dow continue to stagnate for years around 10000, just as it did around 1000 from between the late 1960s and early 1980s? Could Pfizer follow Merck to trade at an eight-year low, a move that would see the stock, now at $28, somewhere near $10 a share? Given current conditions, all are well within the realm of possibility.

So rather than plan for the calamitous events or wait for perfect information without uncertainty, focus on the big trends, a few dominant themes and the slow, relentless movement of time.

Jonathan Hoenig is managing member at Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC. At the time of writing, Hoenig's fund might have held positions in many of the securities mentioned in this article.