My Year of Winning Defensively

Exactly one year ago this week, I urged readers to buy stocks, and I did so myself. I felt like a lonely voice in the midst of pervasive gloom, but I had at least one important ally. On March 3, 2009, President Obama remarked that Profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you ve got a long-term perspective on it.

See 3 Stocks on My Shopping List

Let me tell you, it feels even better a year later. The S&P 500 is up 68% in one of the most remarkable uninterrupted stock market rallies I ve ever witnessed. In this environment, anyone who bought stocks a year ago feels like a genius. The reality is a little more humbling.

I bought four of the stocks I highlighted then. Although I noted that I could make the case that investors should be buying the most beaten-down shares (as indeed proved to be the case) I wasn t immune to the prevailing despair and went for defensive stocks but not too defensive.

How did these stocks fare? And where are they headed now?

I bought medical information technology company Quality Systems, teen retailer Buckle; food giant General Mills; and online retailer Amazon.com. Of the four, only one outperformed the S&P 500. As of this week, Quality Systems had gained 53%; the Buckle 45%; and General Mills 45%. Only Amazon could be considered a home run, with a gain of 115%.

These results very good in absolute terms but not stellar compared to the S&P 500 -- are in keeping with the defensive posture I adopted. They illustrate the hazard of any kind of thematic predictions about the market. My market timing was great -- but not my sense that any market recovery would be gradual rather than the spectacular leap that ensued. If not for Amazon, I would have been better off with an index fund.

see Prepare Your Portfolio for Higher Ratessee Get Ready to Shop for Stocks. That leaves Buckle.

My teen sources still love Buckle, but let s face it: Teens can be fickle. Not being a teen or even close to it, and despite several visits to Buckle stores, I can t say just what fashion trend Buckle has locked into. But sales momentum seems to have slowed. January sales were disappointing given high expectations, and February sales rose 5.1% -- good news, but behind mall rivals American Eagle Outfitters and Aeropostale. My sense in teen fashion retail is that once lost, buzz can be hard to recapture.

Given the nature of its business, I never expected Buckle to be a long-term holding. So I recently sold my shares and bought Under Armour, which I recommended a few weeks ago. Investors interested in retail might also look at Nordstrom, whose recent strong gains suggest that the upscale department-store chain is well positioned to benefit from rebounding consumer spending.

Can the broad market rally continue? Stocks are still well below their highs of October 2007, and one of these days they ll get there. But this is not March 2009. Stocks are not going to rise another 60% this year. As I ve said before, eventually there will be a correction. Then it will be time to commit more money to stocks.

Since he showed such astute timing a year ago, I asked the White House for President Obama s views on the market now. So far he hasn t replied, and who could blame him for not wanting to risk his perfect record? But take a deep breath and look at your portfolio value from a year ago and compare it to today. The president and his economic team and some members of the previous administration, too deserve some credit for the fiscal and monetary policy that saved the world from collapse, and boosted every stock investor s net worth.

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