Polish Vodka Distributor Is Worth a Shot

Back to the Story

IN TWO RESPECTS

, Poland's economy resembles America's. Consumer prices are rising at about 4% year, while imports trump exports by a margin of around 4% of gross domestic product. The similarities stop there. Poland's economy is expected to grow nearly 6% this year net of inflation, some five percentage points faster than projected U.S. growth. Polish stocks have produced more than four times the gains of American ones over the past five years. One Polish Zloty bought an American quarter five years ago. Today it buys 46 cents.

Eleven months ago, on a trip to Bialystok, I found time to wipe the lager foam from my nose and write up a recommendation of Central European Distribution. Based in Warsaw, it's Poland's largest distributor of local and imported beer and spirits. Poland, in turn, is the world's No. 2 vodka drinker and Europe's No. 4 beer drinker.

Higher incomes in Poland mean young drinkers are swapping cheap domestic brands for snootier, and more lucrative, foreign ones. Since 1996 more than 80% of Poland's spirits distributors have been swallowed by larger players, with Central European proving, perhaps, the savviest buyer. The stock had already multiplied 17 times in value between August 1998, when it debuted on Nasdaq, and my May column. Since then it has surged another 80%, while the S&P 500 index has slipped 10%.

The company now control's a third of Poland's vodka trade. Antimonopoly laws say it can't buy its way beyond 40%. But it's still growing at a heady pace. Recent expansion into Hungary bodes well for Central European, justifying its name and perhaps allowing it to eventually dominate the region. And its purchase of majority interests in Russian companies including Whitehall, a major importer, and Parliament, a premium vodka brand, give it entrance into a market whose population, while half that of America, buys four times as much vodka.

Foreign distribution of Polish brands might help even more (and might take a nick out of Poland's aforementioned trade deficit). Zubrowka, recognized for the blade of bison grass floating in each bottle, seems the most promising brand for that. I'm not a great judge of, or fan of, vodka. The goal of the priciest ones seems to be to taste like nothing. But Zubrowka, indeed, tastes like nothing, and so maybe it's good. The French seem to think so. It ranks No. 2 there for imports. The company now has distribution agreements for 30 countries, including the U.K. and U.S.

Sales for Central European are seen swelling 23% this year to $1.46 billion. In testament to how scale favors the booze pushers, profits are expected to jump 39% to $2.35. That puts the stock at 26 times this year's earnings forecast, making it nearly twice as expensive as the average American stock. In 2009 this number is surely less reliable than the current-year estimate Wall Street expects the company's profits to plump up another 19%. That's just about enough growth to warrant a second round of Central European shares, although in truth, I'm not quite as thirsty for it as at 20 times earnings back in May.

Central European turned up recently along with seven other companies in a search for fast growers. Have a look at the search criteria if you like and run the screen anytime using SmartMoney's stock screener.

See all the Screen Survivors

The Fast-Growth Stock Screen

Stock Ticker

Company Name

Industry

Curr. Price

3-Yr. Sales Growth (%)

Proj. EPS Growth - This Year (%)

Forward P/E (Curr. Yr.)

Apple

Personal Computers

153.70

31.85

30.53

29.96

Bucyrus International Cl A

Farm Machinery

119.71

49.96

35.09

23.38

Central European Distribution

Winery/Distillers

61.71

25.63

38.46

26.37

Darling International

Cleaning Products

13.90

26.85

37.93

17.38

MEMC Electronic Materials

Integrated Circuits

73.81

24.70

26.92

17.21

Navteq

Business Software & Services

70.34

28.20

20.81

33.66

Netflix

Music & Video Stores

38.97

34.74

32.63

30.93

Vimpel Communication ADS

Wireless Communications

31.45

49.69

44.44

15.12

Data as of April 16, 2008.

Download Today's Screen

Fast-Growth Screen Recipe

INVESTOR CENTER

MARKETS:
Chart
TODAY
Portfolio Chart

RESEARCH STOCKS & FUNDS

Subscriber Tool

Stock Screener

Portfolio Tracker

Track your own buys and sells

See More Tools

Answer Engine
Find Answers to Life's Challenges  

Find solutions to this and many other problems using

Answer Engine from SmartMoney. 

Copyright 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved
This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit
www.djreprints.com.