Put Supermarkets on Your Shopping List

The modern supermarket is an unquestionable triumph of man's achievement and ingenuity. In a clean, safe and accessible store, literally thousands of delicious products are available at competitive prices, oftentimes 24 hours a day. Fresh produce, fish, bakery items and poultry are commonplace. Many offer imported cheeses, wines from all over the world, exotic oils and herbs, not to mention Wheaties, Diet Coke, Ragu spaghetti sauce and other staples of the American kitchen.

[Whole Foods Market Produce Section]


Whole Foods Market Produce Section (Photo courtesy of Whole Foods)

It's worth noting that in 17th century pre-capitalist England, as described in Andrew Bernstein's forthcoming book "Capitalism Unbound", upwards of half of the population was literally starving. The poor ate grass, animal intestines and the bark from trees to survive. In capitalist America, one can buy an entire loaf of bread -- white or whole wheat -- for just 88 cents.

Despite that productive accomplishment, supermarket stocks, have not been market leaders in years. Many trade near or below the levels at which they were at a decade ago, always seeming to lack both the high-dividend characteristics favored by value investors and, with few exceptions like Whole Foods (WFMI), the prospect for expanding multiples sought by the growth crowd.

Especially in today's market, supermarkets would seem an unlikely profit center. The consumer, so we're told, is cutting back everywhere. Traditional grocery stores now face competition from e-delivery alternatives such as FreshDirect and Peapod, not to mention Wal-Mart (WMT), which is now the largest grocery store in the U.S. Just last week the sector was downgraded by Pali Capital and had estimates cut by Jefferies & Co.

As usual, my interest was born out of one of my existing holdings, Blue Square Israel (BSI), which operates grocery stores and supermarkets in Israel and has risen 15% since we last wrote about it in July. As we often point out, the best place to begin one's analysis is within your own portfolio. Blue Square's strength prompted me to look more closely at other names within the grocery industry. Here are a few worth your attention.

Hungry in the Holy Land
[Blue Square Israel]


Blue Square Israel (BSI) - 4 years

As mentioned, Blue Square is my favorite, a small-cap, emerging market stock with an attractive dividend and virtually no real investment interest from the United States. The company owns and operates 200 supermarkets in fast-growing Israel, the most capitalist and western (read: consumerist) country in the Middle East. Given the stocks thin liquidity, limit orders are a must. The stock is still down by half of its 2007 high.

A Southern Staple
[Ruddick]


Ruddick (RDK) - 4 years

Ruddick (RDK) operates 190 supermarkets in the south, making the company among the top 100 retailers in the U.S. Branded as Harris Teeter Supermarkets, the company introduced one of the first loyalty card programs for grocery stores in the United States, and owns both its own dairy processing plant and distribution centers, both which help control costs. While the stock is by no means a pure play -- Ruddick also owns a global thread and embroidery business -- shares appear poised to take a run at the company's all-time high near $40 a share. The stock has a 1.7% dividend yield.

Small-Town Grocery Giant
[Weis Markets]


Weis Markets (WMK) - 4 years

Weis Markets (WMK) concentrates in small towns and rural areas, with 154 stores and a history that stretches back to 1912. Despite that history, over the past decade, its shares have been volatile but painfully sluggish. The stock is $35 today -- exactly the price it was in 1999. For investors willing to put shares in their cart, the stock's 3.3% dividend yield is an obvious attraction. It's also not strictly a pure play grocery store, either. The company also owns 27 SuperPetz pet stores, an asset which could potentially benefit the company in a sale, spinoff or other transformational initiative.

At the time of writing, Hoenig's fund owned shares of Blue Square Israel (BSI).

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