Send a Thank You Card to Tim Geithner

This week marked an important anniversary that nobody remembered to celebrate.

If was one year ago on Feb. 10 that the world was saved. And you didn't even send a card. Shame on you.

Seriously, a year ago the world was ending. Markets were in free-fall, and the banking system was collapsing. "Doing something" hadn't helped -- $700 billion in TARP money didn't help. Nor did bailing out Bear Stearns and AIG, merging Merrill Lynch, or throwing Lehman under the bus. When doing something fails, try doing nothing. Can't hurt. Might help. And so it did.

Nothing is precisely what Timothy Geithner did one year ago this week. Remember, he was the brand new Treasury secretary, on the job just a week or two after a bruising Senate confirmation process in which he was exposed for not paying all his income taxes.

Works for me! If we can't have a tax-cutter running the Treasury, let's at least have a tax evader. Shows his heart is in the right place. And indeed it was, because his do-nothing solution to the banking crisis proved to be brilliantly effective.

Here's exactly what Geithner did -- uh, didn't.

He declared that the top 19 banks would be given a "stress test." That's basically nothing. These banks have been regulated, tested, examined, poked and prodded by every government agency for years.

Then he declared that any bank that failed the stress test would be required to raise more capital. Nothing, yet again. Banks were already scrambling to raise capital, and couldn't do it. That's why TARP was created, to provide them the capital they couldn't otherwise raise. It didn't help.

But then came the really important nothing. Geithner declared that any bank that both failed the stress test and couldn't raise capital could have more TARP money. It would come in the form of mandatory convertible preferred stock. For anyone out there who's not a finance nerd, what that means is: a junior bond that can be converted into common stock whenever the company chooses.

There was one wonderful detail. Geithner announced that should the conversion from preferred to common ever take place, the conversion would be based on the banks stock price yesterday -- that is, Feb. 9, 2009 -- minus 10%. Think what that means. If a bank failed the stress test, it must be in pretty bad shape. If it then couldn't raise capital, it must really be in terrible shape. So its stock price should collapse. If the conversion took place at that collapsed price, the preferred holder would get zillions of shares, perhaps ending up pretty much owning the company.

But no, Geithner said. Instead, we'll do nothing. We won't be greedy. We'll take your price on Feb. 9 (minus 10%), not what will doubtless be a fantastically lower price.

Think what that meant for banks.

It meant that the U.S. Treasury, an entity with just about the deepest pockets in the world, stood ready to buy bank stocks -- no matter what terrible thing might happen -- at pretty much the current (at the time) price. That means every investor in the world could have total confidence that the crash in bank stocks was over, because there was an infinitely endowed buyer waiting in the wings, ready to buy -- even if the worst comes months or years in the future.

Since making that announcement, the Treasury hasn't had to actually do anything. It hasn't invested a dime of TARP money in any of the stress-tested banks. It has done nothing.

And the world was saved! Today the average stock price of the stress-tested banks is 76% higher than the price at which Geithner committed the Treasury to buy, if worse had come to worse. Some of the individual stock performances have been downright spectacular, with four beating the 100% level. The best is Fifth Third Bank (FITB), 254% higher. American Express (AXP) is 147% higher. Bank of America (BAC), 135%. Goldman Sachs (GS), 114%.

The only bank whose stock is trading lower than the price at which Geithner committed the Treasury to buy is Citigroup (C), which is 7% lower. But even it has raised tons of new capital, and is paying off its TARP money. Doing nothing really did save the world. Turns out we didn't really have to throw all that money at the banks to save them. We just needed to promise we would if we had to. Having promised, we wouldn't actually have to.

That's because markets thrive on confidence. Throwing $700 billion in TARP money at the banks showed the Treasury had no confidence in them -- so why should investors have any confidence?

But doing stress tests was a symbolic gesture to say "we are going to get the truth." And saying you'll buy stock at yesterday's price (minus 10%) come what may, that means you're confident that the truth will set you free.

Now the funny thing -- in retrospect at least -- is that when Geithner announced this plan of doing nothing, markets absolutely hated it. They were hung up on the obsession with doing something. Doing nothing was just too zen.

The day Geithner unveiled his nothing strategy, the S&P 500 fell 4.9%. The S&P financial sector fell -- get this! -- 10.9%. In a single day -- the day that the plan to save the world was announced. Amazing how stupid markets can be.

But they learn eventually. Sadly, while there is learning, there is little gratitude. No one is thanking Tim Geithner, except me. Mostly he's being vilified for being a tool of Wall Street, or a stooge of Goldman Sachs, or some such slander.

Well, no good deed goes unpunished. But from this one little lonely voice, I say "thank you, Tim. Well done. Happy anniversary."

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