ByJAMES B. STEWART
Despite reports to> the contrary, the American consumer is evidently alive and well and shopping for back-to-school clothing.
Every recession brings predictions that consumers will shut their wallets and cut up their credit cards, and no doubt many have. Even so, August retail sales rose 3.5% over the year-ago period, solidly above expectations, according to research firm Retail Metrics s index of same-store sales, which culls data from 30 U.S. retailers.
With fall in the air, this is the time of year I like to look for bargains among stocks in the retail sector especially now, with low expectations heading into the critical holiday shopping period. Because I m not much of a mall-goer, I turned to my niece Maggie, who s just out of college and was shopping last week in Indianapolis.
Maggie reports that stores were crowded, with lines at the check-out counters at Gap (American Eagle)GPS
Although it s been a long time since anyone thought of Gap as trendy, the chain has been pushing tight jeans and seems to have this look in hand. Its share price could certainly use a boost. At $17.65 as of Friday s close, it s down over 16% year-to-date and 33% off its high of $26.21 in April.
Consumers, especially teens, can be fickle, but retail trends don t change all that fast. I had our researcher do a screen of retail stocks looking for year-over-year quarterly profit gains of more than 50% and revenue growth of more than 10%. That s the same formula that uncovered Under Armour (UA),
Among teen retailers, Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)
By comparison, the J. Crew store I visited in the Time Warner Center was positively sedate, but it had plenty of the tight jeans and cardigan sweaters my niece was extolling, with some preppy touches, like a rep tie over a woman s blouse. Even though J. Crew reported last week that sales were up 14% for the quarter, the company lowered its full-year forecast and shares dropped 7%. J. Crew shares have suffered almost exactly the same fate as Abercrombie s, trading at just over $34, down from a high of $50.
Both stocks strike me as bargains, especially if consumer spending holds up. They have strong brands, solid momentum, and, if my niece s forecasts are on target, the right looks.



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