Shopping for Back-to-School Stocks

Despite reports to the contrary, the American consumer is evidently alive and well and shopping for back-to-school clothing.

Every recession brings predictions that consumers will shut their wallets and cut up their credit cards, and no doubt many have. Even so, August retail sales rose 3.5% over the year-ago period, solidly above expectations, according to research firm Retail Metrics s index of same-store sales, which culls data from 30 U.S. retailers.

With fall in the air, this is the time of year I like to look for bargains among stocks in the retail sector especially now, with low expectations heading into the critical holiday shopping period. Because I m not much of a mall-goer, I turned to my niece Maggie, who s just out of college and was shopping last week in Indianapolis.

Maggie reports that stores were crowded, with lines at the check-out counters at Gap (American Eagle)GPS and American Eagle (AEO), two of her preferred stores. The must-have fashion for young women appears to be jeggings, jeans so tight they qualify as leggings. Super-tight jeans are also the look for young men, she reports. Cardigan sweaters, oversized jewelry and racerback shirts, which expose the shoulders and are cut low in the back, complete the look.

Although it s been a long time since anyone thought of Gap as trendy, the chain has been pushing tight jeans and seems to have this look in hand. Its share price could certainly use a boost. At $17.65 as of Friday s close, it s down over 16% year-to-date and 33% off its high of $26.21 in April.

Consumers, especially teens, can be fickle, but retail trends don t change all that fast. I had our researcher do a screen of retail stocks looking for year-over-year quarterly profit gains of more than 50% and revenue growth of more than 10%. That s the same formula that uncovered Under Armour (UA), which I recommended (and bought) in February. It s up about 41% so far this year.

Among teen retailers, Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) and J. Crew (JCG) made the cut, and both stocks have been sharply marked down on recent results that were good, but not as good as analysts expected. I checked out Abercrombie s flagship store on Fifth Avenue recently, but there was a line just to get in. I could see the buffed, shirtless guy in the entrance and hear the waves of loud music pouring out the open door. Evidently the high-testosterone vibe is working because A&F s comparable-store sales were up a solid 6% in August. However, shares dropped 4% on the news, and at just under $35 a share this week, Abercrombie is well off its high for the year of $49.98.

By comparison, the J. Crew store I visited in the Time Warner Center was positively sedate, but it had plenty of the tight jeans and cardigan sweaters my niece was extolling, with some preppy touches, like a rep tie over a woman s blouse. Even though J. Crew reported last week that sales were up 14% for the quarter, the company lowered its full-year forecast and shares dropped 7%. J. Crew shares have suffered almost exactly the same fate as Abercrombie s, trading at just over $34, down from a high of $50.

Both stocks strike me as bargains, especially if consumer spending holds up. They have strong brands, solid momentum, and, if my niece s forecasts are on target, the right looks.

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