The second-quarter earnings season unofficially kicked off after the market close Wednesday, when aluminum giant Alcoa (AA) released its earnings. It proved to be a surprisingly good start. Alcoa, which is struggling with a slump in global demand, reported a loss of 26 cents a share (excluding charges) -- marking the company s third consecutive quarter of losses but the firm shocked traders by topping analysts estimates by 12 cents a share.

Unfortunately, the rest of the season might look less rosy. According to analysis by Thomson Reuters, the expected second-quarter earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is negative 35.5% -- marking the eighth straight quarter of declines. All 10 of the sectors Thomson tracks are expected to fall (health care is expected to fare the best with a decline of 2%, while basic materials is expected to do the worst with a decline of 79%). By any historical context, it s not looking to be a good quarter, says John Butters, director of U.S. earnings research for Thomson Reuters.

See Home Depot and 6 otherswho have upped their guidance.

But not all hope is lost. A handful of companies have actually raised their second-quarter projections, providing some precious clues to which industries may produce some upside surprises in the coming weeks. SmartMoney.com combed through earnings preannouncements and guidance to see which types of companies are feeling a little more optimistic about their results for the quarter. In doing so, two clear industries emerged: technology (particularly chip makers) and consumer goods.

Texas Instruments (TXN), for example, raised its earnings projections from a range of 1 to 15 cents a share to 14 to 22 cents a share in early June. And Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG) not only raised its second-quarter earnings projections by 5 cents a share in early June, it then followed that positive news by beating the high end of its revised projections by 4 cents a share Wednesday.

But do the positive announcements from Texas Instruments and Pepsi Bottling bode well for their respective tech and consumer goods peers?

In certain corners of the tech world, the earnings season could very well show signs that the industry is rebounding off of a bottom, says Daniel Berenbaum, an analyst at Auriga USA.

I think second-quarter earnings is going to be pretty positive, and everybody s going to be looking out at what guidance is for Q3, says Berenbaum. The second half of the year is typically stronger for semiconductor companies, thanks to seasonal shopping patterns, he says. We re going to see some seasonality there is going to be a back to school, and there is going to be a Christmas it s just a question of how good they are, the analyst says.

Predicting how consumer-goods companies will fare is more difficult. When you re looking out at the environment, it s really a tale of two cities, says Paul Larson, an equity strategist at Morningstar, an independent investment research firm. He expects companies that sell goods consumers can t do without to report earnings that are down year-over-year, but only by 5% or 10% -- a relative success in the current recession.

Of course, investors should keep an eye out for company projections beyond the second quarter, says Butters. What the companies say they expect for the second half of the year will be key in determining their level of confidence about future sales, he says.

Here s a look at some of the companies that have revised their second-quarter estimates upward, the factors behind their good news and whether it bodes well for other companies in their industry.

Results: FY 2009 EPS $3.98

Forecast: FY2009 EPS would exceed earlier projection of between $3.87 and $3.89

General Mills (GIS) announced earnings for fiscal 2009 of $3.98 a share last week, exceeding their previous guidance by 9 cents a share, as the company had predicted it would in June. Consumers may be cutting back on their spending, but food apparently isn t one area they're skimping on. The company says U.S. retail sales have seen strong growth in the fiscal year ending May 31. The company also attributes the better-than-expected earnings to new products and consumer marketing efforts. Earnings for 2009 also reflect a gain from the sale of Pop Secret popcorn to Diamond Foods (DMND), which in late May also raised its full-year EPS estimates.

Consumption s probably going to fall as a percentage of GDP, which it needs to do, and the way it s going to fall isn t going to be that people stop eating, says Dan Seiver, a finance professor at San Diego State University.

Companies like General Mills that rely on basic food products to drive their bottom line should hold up well even as consumer spending remains low, he says.

New Forecast: FY2009 EPS (continuing operations) flat to down 7%

Old Forecast: FY2009 EPS (continuing operations) down 7%

Even if Home Depot (HD) hits the high end of its projections, investors shouldn t equate it with a broader recovery in the housing industry, says Larson. At Home Depot, more than half of their business is plungers and light bulbs. In other words, staple items consumers can t skimp on, he says.

The mid-June revised estimate builds upon what I ve been seeing from Home Depot since the middle of 2008, where they ve become much more efficient in their operations, says Brian Sozzi, an equity research analyst at Wall Street Strategies. CEO Frank Blake s emphasis on the shopping experience has also paid off: If you re a longtime Home Depot shopper, you can really tell the difference, says Sozzi.

One wild card? The weather. Heavy storms in the Northeast and Midwest over the past couple of months could weigh on sales for the company and its main competitor Lowe's (LOW) [The second quarter] is their Christmas season this is their key earnings quarter, says Laura Champine, an analyst at Cowen and Company. Both companies have successfully cut costs, but housing has yet to turn around, and with the weather holding down summer spending, these companies could potentially miss their targets.

Results: 2Q EPS of 78 cents (excluding after-tax gains and restructuring charges)

New Forecast: 2Q EPS of 70 cents to 74 cents

Old Forecast: 2Q EPS of 65 cents to 69 cents

Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG) had raised both its second-quarter and its 2009 earnings guidance before reporting earnings per share of 78 cents on Wednesday, beating the revised guidance of 70 to 74 cents. The company credits the brighter outlook to improved sales in the U.S., continued commodity price deflation and decreased volatility in foreign currencies.

Companies like Pepsi Bottling and Coca-Cola (KO) are thought to be very recession-proof, says David Silver, an analyst at Wall Street Strategies. PBG, he says, is one of the few companies [in the broader market] that are actually seeing a positive second half of the year.

Silver cautions, however, that so far Pepsi Bottling has kept earnings flat year-over-year in part by cutting costs. They re continuing to cost-cut, but at the end of it there s only so much that you can cut out before real revenue growth needs to come to grow the company, Silver says. We re approaching that point very quickly.

New Forecast: Fiscal 3Q revenues of $2.67 to $2.77 billion

Old Forecast: Fiscal 3Q revenues of $2.40 to $2.60 billion

Qualcomm (QCOM) cites strong world-wide demand for its 3G chipsets as the reason for its fairly sizable boost in revenue projections in early June. (The company did not provide earnings per share guidance, noting that potential investment losses make such projections unpredictable.)

All these companies have cash on hand, so it s invested in marketable ways like stocks and bonds, says Vijay Rakesh, an analyst at ThinkEquity, LLC. ThinkEquity predicts fiscal 2009 EPS of $1.23, up from a previous estimate of $1.20.

Having grown from 20% of the handset market in 2003 to 50% today, the company is well-positioned to take advantage of growing 3G adoption, and to enter the burgeoning netbook market, Rakesh says.

Also helping, is an expected rebound in the overall semiconductor industry. Through the second quarter you heard indications that demand improved, Rakesh says. That sets it up for a pretty good third quarter in terms of holiday and back to school.

New Forecast: 2Q diluted EPS of 13 to 16 cents

Old Forecast: 2Q diluted EPS of 7 to 11 cents

Another chip maker makes the list: integrated-circuits maker Silicon Laboratories (SLAB) credits new timing, video. and short-range wireless products, and a recovery in orders and shipments for its upped estimates. With more new product cycles than at any time in our history, we are increasingly confident that it will only be a matter of quarters rather than years to reach and then exceed our third quarter 2008 revenue peak, CEO Necip Sayiner said in a statement on June 17.

For semiconductor companies overall, things are looking brighter. The second half of 2008 saw the supply chain grind to a halt on recession fears, says Adam Benjamin, an analyst at Jefferies & Company. But now, he says, demand is improving and Silicon Laboratories, in particular, could benefit from new product lines ramping up.

New Forecast: 2Q EPS between 14 cents and 22 cents

Old Forecast: 2Q EPS between 1 cent and 15 cents

Texas Instruments (TXN) is highlighting stronger-than-expected wireless handset revenues as part of the reason for its improved estimate. Earlier second-quarter estimates were very conservative, says Berenbaum. Not to say that it was unrealistic at the time, but when guidance was given, we d just come off a horrific quarter.

After paring down their inventory levels in the grim fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009, many semiconductor companies have benefited from restocking in the second quarter.

New Forecast: Fiscal 3Q EPS of $0.00 to $0.07

Old Forecast: Fiscal 3Q EPS of -$0.05 to $0.00

Tyco Electronics (TEL) says its improved outlook for the quarter ending June 26 is due to increased revenue in the company s electronic components and undersea telecommunications divisions, as well as cost savings from restructuring.

Even though they have increased their guidance, this year is still going to be a tough year for them, says Zahid Siddique, an analyst at Gabelli & Company. Their end markets are very consumer-driven, and we re seeing weakness in those markets, he says. However, Siddique says that in the long term, Tyco is in a relatively stronger position compared to smaller, less-diversified companies like Bel Fuse, LittelFuse, Cooper Industries or Thomas & Betts.