ByRESHMA KAPADIA
A year ago> the idea of spending on anything but bare essentials was all but unthinkable. But today, some investors are looking to cash in on a developing trend in corporate America: Call it the return of the spenders.
According to a recent Business Roundtable survey of chief executives of the country s biggest firms, nearly 40 percent expect higher spending at their companies in coming months, almost twice the number that did in the fall.
Company executives are telling investors, Do not think we can save ourselves to prosperity, says Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup. He says that means companies will start loosening up the purse strings to invest in their own operations, even if it involves some added costs. Although total corporate spending is still falling, Levkovich says, it typically turns around after about six months of profit improvements.
For investors, the trick is to find companies that are on the receiving end of the revival in spending. Technology firms are often seen as likely winners, as many of them have products or services, such as computer software, that help make their customers more efficient.
Other potential beneficiaries include firms that benefit from the continued trend toward outsourcing, as companies look to others to perform tasks that they used to do in-house. But strategists say investors shouldn t stop at the obvious candidates. Indeed, companies that help customers generate higher returns can be found in just about every industry.
Randy Hare, manager of the $50 million Huntington New Economy fund, is zeroing in on firms like fertilizer maker Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, which can help farmers be more productive by increasing their crop yields.
Some fund managers say another likely beneficiary is CVS Caremark. While many people know CVS for its chain of drugstores, the company s pharmacy-benefits business can help insurers and corporations save money on health care by cutting back on the number of vendors. And since CVS Caremark is buying a higher volume of drugs for its pharmacy customers and for its mail-order business it can often get a good deal on price. When everyone is watching costs, anyone that can help a company be more valuable in a no-growth world stands to gain, says Ron Sloan, senior portfolio manager of the $5.2 billion AIM Charter fund, which owns CVS Caremark shares.
Of course, the recession and financial crisis have left many corporate strategists skittish, and any economic setback could keep corporate coffers closed for longer. And even as spending does return, experts say it could well be uneven, benefiting some companies but leaving others behind. That means investors looking for winners have to be as careful as the outfits doing the spending.
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These companies could be early beneficiaries of a pickup in corporate spending.
Consulting firms like Accenture have been battered in the downturn, as customers cut all but the most necessary costs. But as the recovery takes hold, customers are more likely to look to these firms to help them get the most out of their businesses and employees, says Parnassus Investments portfolio manager Matt Gershuny.
As cable and telecom firms roll out the latest triple play services, more of them will look toward outsourcing their billing and data mining to companies such as Amdocs, says AIM Charter fund manager Ron Sloan. In the fourth quarter, the company reported a pickup in contract activity from communications firms and increased discussions about Amdocs taking over even more tasks.
The software firm helps companies test products digitally in different environments before building physical prototypes, speeding up the manufacturing process. Leases for Ansys s software held up relatively well in the downturn, but its licensing business took a hit. Thornburg Value fund manager Connor Browne expects the stock to benefit from a recovery in licensing, as customers are willing to spend on software that will boost efficiency.
Fertilizer companies offer their customers one of the best ways to increase crop production, says Randy Hare, of the Huntington New Economy fund. Concerns about falling fertilizer prices and the lowest volumes in 20 years have hurt the stock recently, but the company said farmers can defer fertilizer purchases only for so long before hurting global food production. With the outlook for food demand worldwide expected to grow, Hare sees the stock as a good long-term investment.
Rockwell noted a gradual pick-up in global demand for industrial equipment and factory electronics as customers look to get the most out of their shop floors. Rockwell s factory-control software helps firms meet a pick-up in demand without committing to additional bodies, says T. Rowe Price U.S. Large Cap Core fund manager Jeff Rottinhaus, who holds the stock in his fund.
As investors search for companies that benefit from value-conscious budget chiefs, outsourcing firms like Infosys are a natural place to look. The company boosted its profit outlook for the year and its hiring target to 25,000 from 16,000 people as it broadens away from its core manufacturing and financial customers. Infosys decision to boost wages and hire suggests optimism about a pick-up in business, says Amana Mutual Funds Trust manager Nick Kaiser.



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