By JONATHAN HOENIG
Written in the 6th century, Sun Tzu's "The Art of War" remains one of the most widely quoted and most beloved books on investment strategy, most recently immortalized by Michael Douglas's Gordon Gekko in the 1987 film "Wall Street." (Click here to watch the clip.)
But many new readers of the book may be surprised to find that the text isn't primarily devoted to warfare and fighting -- but to planning and waiting. The decision to attack comes not from boredom or whim, but, according to Sun Tzu, "like the well-timed swoop of a falcon which enables it to strike and destroy its victim." In other words, most of warfare involves inaction rather than action -- a crucial perspective that's directly applicable to markets, but which most investors overlook.
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In a never-ending news cycle punctuated by Twitter-sized "special alerts", we feel compelled to shift our portfolio with every new headline or data point. Good earnings? We buy. Debt talks breaking down? We sell. Like Pavlov's dogs, we tirelessly reaction to situations without thinking, and even the supposed professionals get caught: no stock newsletter service would last telling subscribers to sit on their hands for six months. People want action, even if it means fighting battles they likely won't win.
"The important thing", writes Sun Tzu, "is victory, not persistence," which rules out weak, low probability bets like penny stocks, markets at multi-month lows or former high fliers. All tend to sap and tie up limited resources in go-nowhere trades.
"The right moment to swoop", as I wrote last week, begins the moment the security in question begins acting in the manner in which you anticipate. Back in 2008, private-equity group TPG dumped billions into a still-weakening Washington Mutual, an investment that vaporized a mere 6 months later as the bank collapsed. Because markets move in trends which tend to persist over time, it's always preferable to buy markets which have shown a base rather than trying to catch the proverbial falling knife. "When you are in a difficult country, do not make camp," writes Sun Tzu, "you will find yourself in a desperate position and have to fight." Knife catchers purposefully put themselves in that desperate position.
Soldiers, and investors, win victories by avoiding mistakes, not by trying to bludgeon the market to death. That's a fight you'll never win.
And while Sun Tzu might not have been a momentum investor, he unquestionably understood the importance of trading with the trend. "It is the nature of a log or stone to remain motionless on level ground, and to move when on a slope", he wrote, encouraging the use of "natural or inherent power" so that fighting men become "like rolling logs or stones."
Simply put, investors must be patient enough to allow the market, not their transactions, to do the heavy lifting. But because it feels so satisfying to snatch a profit -- any profit -- we all too often cash in our positions just as they begin to roll. Yet from Netflix (NFLX) to gold, trending markets have a tendency to persist. Battle-hardened investors understand that, because such opportunities are a relatively rare occurrence, one must exploit them fully by letting winners run their course. "When your army has penetrated deeply into enemy territory" advises Sun Tzu, "gather in plunder."
In an era dominated by supposed quick financial-fixes, "The Art of War" remains relevant for investors seeking investment advice that will never go out of style.
Jonathan Hoenig is managing member at Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC.



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