Stock Picks: ADBE Up, SHPGY Down

Adobe (ADBE) shares were rising early Wednesday as analysts showed enthusiasm for earnings next week.

Brigantine Advisors analyst Steven Frankel upped his rating for the stock to buy from hold on Wednesday ahead of Adobe s first-quarter report and the launch of Creative Suite 5 (CS5). In the near-term we expect the company to beat our conservative estimates and come in line to slightly above consensus numbers and guide conservatively headed into the CS5 launch in mid-Q2, wrote Frankel.

Quarterly results will reflect the first full quarter since the Omniture acquisition, giving a clearer picture of Adobe s 2010 operating model, writes Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Blair Abernethy. The quarter was also likely the last of the Creative Suite 4 (CS4) product cycle, and creative solutions revenue is likely to be down 5% from the last quarter, according to the analyst.

The bottom line: Relative to CS4, which first shipped in October 2008, the CS5 cycle should benefit from a more stable economic backdrop and an improving ad spending environment, the PC refresh cycle, pent up demand and tiered upgrade pricing, and important CS5 product advancements, wrote Abernathy, who added that Adobe seems to be through the worst of the recession s impact. We believe that company continues to strengthen its key creative and content franchises, and should benefit from several operational and macro tailwinds over the next year.

Shire Down

Shire (SHPGY) shares were lower after Citigroup analysts praised the pharmaceutical company, but said the reasons for praise are already priced in.

The fiscal year 2009 results provided clear evidence of the strength of the underlying business and the astute management of costs which is now driving the operational leverage afforded by the business model, wrote Citi analyst Kevin Wilson.

The company has capitalized on and continues to take advantage of competitor Genzyme (GENZ) manufacturing problems, says Wilson. And core product sales are expected to grow by at least 25% in 2010, with sales, general and administrative, and research and development costs rising by just 5% to 10%.

But the analyst lowered his rating for the stock to a sell rating saying opportunities and strengths are likely already priced in as shares have outperformed vs. the EU pharmaceutical sector by 38% over the last 12 months, and by 19% year to date.

The bottom line: We like the strategy, we like the management, but we find the valuation full and in current markets recommend that investors should take profits from the near doubling over the past 12 months and revisit the shares later, he says.

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