ByJACK HOUGH
The broad American> stock market is down 43% year to date. Some industries envy that performance. Big investment banks have lost 80%. Television broadcasters are down 84%. Home builders have fallen 66% on top of a 60% decline last year.
Those groups and others were well represented on a recent search I ran for companies trading below what I call their ugly prices. I figure that even the worst-performing company in a miserable economy is worth a look by stock investors if either or both of two conditions is true: It trades well below its liquidation value, or it carries a reliable dividend yield that's high enough for an investor to pocket all of the money they put up in less than a decade.
Forget about low price/earnings ratios for this search, because companies can't be counted on right now to meet earnings forecasts. As I noted Monday, estimates seem suspiciously high, most likely because not all Wall Street analysts have gotten around to publishing revised numbers. Moreover, ugly surprises loom.
Going into 2008, S&P 500 companies had $63 billion in excess funding for their pensions, their biggest cushion in 12 years. But more than 60% of pension assets were in stocks, and the pension math that yielded such a big surplus was based on an assumption of 8% yearly returns. Don't be surprised if companies end 2008 with the largest pension underfunding in U.S. history, and start taking big charges to profits to shore up their accounts.
Instead of earnings, I based my search on something called tangible book value. That's what a company's accountants figure it would get for its hard assets in a liquidation sale. Only those accountants' estimates can't quite be trusted right now, because some assets have recently plunged in value. So I looked for companies that are trading for less than 25 cents per dollar of tangible book value. Such companies are worth more dead than alive.
Unless, of course, they can provide investors with big, reliable cash payments starting right away. An investor who pays 12 times a company's dividend for its shares (one who buys when the yield is over 8.3%, in other words) makes his money back in about eight and a half years, assuming payments are reinvested quarterly. So I looked for companies that are trading for less than the sum of 25% of their tangible book value and 12 times their yearly dividends. For example, a company with $10 in tangible book value and a yearly dividend of 50 cents would have to trade for less than $8.50 ($2.50 + $6) to have made my list. A few other demands: Companies had to be modestly priced relative to their free cash flow, had to produce at least $500 million in yearly sales and couldn't make the cut on book value alone dividend yields had to top 3%.
Worrisomely, Citigroup (C)
CBS (CBS)
See the full list below. Proceed with caution: While women's clothing seller Christopher & Banks (CBK)
| Company | Industry | Share Price | Tangible Book Value/Share, Total Equity, LFI | Free Cash Flow/Share , LTM | Dividend Rate, Indicated Annual | Dividend Yield (%), Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data as of Nov. 25, 2008 | ||||||
| Bank of America | Banks | 14.59 | 10.74 | 6.75 | 1.28 | 11.16 |
| CBS | Media & Publishing | 5.99 | -9.99 | 1.18 | 1.08 | 21.69 |
| Christopher & Banks | Retailers | 2.96 | 6.42 | 0.53 | 0.24 | 8.33 |
| Eastman Kodak | Photographic Products | 7.47 | 8.73 | 1.16 | 0.50 | 7.22 |
| Journal Communications | Media & Publishing | 2.00 | -0.57 | 0.18 | 0.32 | 20.00 |
| Pfizer | Drugs | 16.04 | 4.01 | 0.84 | 1.28 | 8.17 |



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