The Better IPO Bet

Forget Facebook. The top performers have been coming from a surprisingly old-fashioned sector.

When will Facebook go public? The better question might be, who cares? Despite all the hoopla over hot dot-com IPOs this year, so far the real winners have been ho-hum consumer companies.

Initial public offerings from consumer-sector stocks have outperformed those from all other sectors this year, according to fund tracker Morningstar, with an average 4.4% return. Before this month's market volatility, that average was closer to 20%. Vitamin retailer GNC Holdings (GNC), for example, has gained 37% since its April debut, while Arcos Dorados Holdings (ARCO), the operator of McDonald's restaurants in Latin America, has risen 17% since its April offering. Dunkin Brands (DNKN) is up nearly 39% and Teavana (TEA) has risen 34% in their first few weeks of trading. "U.S. consumer companies have pretty much across the board done really well as IPOs," says Linda Killian, a principal for Renaissance Capital, a firm that runs an IPO-focused mutual fund.

Perhaps investors shouldn't be surprised. Consumer companies have been the best performers this year in the IPOX index, which is composed of companies that have gone public in the past four years, says Josef Schuster, the portfolio manager for the Direxion Long/Short Global IPO fund (DXIIX). The reason: While consumers have put off big-ticket purchases, they are still buying the lattes, tea and accessories offered by newly public companies Dunkin Brands, Teavana, and Francesca's Holdings (FRAN), says Killian says. And that trend is likely to continue, Schuster says. Investors are increasingly looking for specialty consumer firms which can make money during good times and bad, he says.

Not everyone is so bullish. The consumer-focused firms that went public this year appealed to investors looking for young, fast-growing firms -- often the first stocks investors bail out of when markets get choppy, Schuster says. "They can go down 50% in a few days," he says. It's also unlikely that more deals will hit the market until it calms down; recent volatility has effectively shut down the IPO market. Although the break could turn out to be a helpful cooling-off period for a heated market, Schuster says. "Now IPOs will need to come cheaper to incentivize investors," he says.

Still, consumer companies that went public this year are so doing well. In fact, it's the only sector where the average IPO is in the black this year. The tech sector, which includes the IPOs of social networking site LinkedIn (LNKD) and HomeAway (AWAY), an online market for vacation rentals, is down an average of 5.6%.

Investors who want exposure to the IPO universe can consider Renaissance Capital's $10.8 million Global IPO Plus fund (IPOSX), up 5.6% in the past year, which buys IPOs the firm's research team predicts will outperform. The fund's top holdings include Vitamin Shoppe (VSI) and SodaStream International (SODA) . Another options is the $17.9 million First Trust US IPO Index fund (FPX), which tracks an index of larger new offerings and is up 14.8% in the past year. It currently owns cigarette makers Philip Morris (PM) and Lorillard (LO) and infant formula maker Mead Johnson Nutrition Company (MJN) . Schuster's $26.9 million Long/Short strategy aims to outperform by shorting shakier IPOs and buying sound ones; the fund's biggest sector is consumer discretionary companies (both long and short) and is up just 1.2% in the past year. Investors should keep in mind that many young companies underperform, and that an IPO-focused fund runs the risk of becoming highly concentrated in the latest "hot" sector (Read on for more on the risks and benefits of IPO funds).

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