By RUSSELL PEARLMRAN
These days, it's easy to be downbeat about the U.S. economy. Anyone watching the news knows that consumers say they are as depressed as they've ever been. In cities around the country, thousands of people have been protesting income inequality. Another ugly patch feels like it's right around the corner.
But beyond the blaring headlines are some considerably less dour numbers. You might have to look hard for them, but an ever-increasing range of stats -- after months of flashing yellow (or red) -- are starting to turn green, pros say. Most people already know that the nation is adding more jobs. But spending on such things as construction and cars is on the rise too; manufacturing, productivity and wages are steadily climbing as well. "I'm breathing easier today, given the string of much stronger economic data we've gotten recently," says Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. Many analysts believe the economy is not in as dire straits as you might think, and that's likely good news for the stock market over the long haul.
It's not always easy, of course, for investors to act on the somewhat abstract notion of a "less bad" economy. Take the job market. As everyone realizes, it's not pretty, with nearly 14 million Americans unemployed and anywhere from 3 million to 7 million more either underemployed or having given up looking for work, according to various estimates. Nevertheless, the private sector is slowly adding jobs -- more than 300,000 of them in a recent three-month stretch, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And there are 7 percent more job openings now than there were a year ago. For investors, that could mean it's time to buy into the range of companies up and down the hiring chain, including payroll firms such as ADP and Paychex, temporary-employee providers such as Manpower, and even consulting firms such as Accenture.
But the HR departments aren't the only place where savvy investors are poking around. While job numbers get all the attention, economists point out that the U.S. economy is as big as it's ever been. In the third quarter of 2011, the economy expanded at a 2.5 percent annual rate. That pushed the nation's gross domestic product to nearly $13.4 trillion, slightly above its previous peak, in early 2007. Companies are ramping up spending on equipment and software. Fund managers say that bodes well for an assortment of blue-chip U.S. companies. It's the big guns such as Oracle, IBM and 3M that provide the bulk of big-ticket items to America's corporations. Plus, some of these firms already pay hefty dividends.
That said, not everyone is convinced that an improving U.S. economy might create opportunities for investors in the short term. That's partly because investing of all kinds has become so global. In 2012, factors like Italy's debt issues or the question marks around China's economy may well have a lot more bearing on a portfolio than, for instance, whether Johnson & Johnson increases its profits, how the presidential election turns out or even how dramatically the unemployment rate changes. And whether there are opportunities or not, most pros expect a roller-coaster market over the next few years, something that all investors have to keep in mind. "If you want to put kids in college, start a business or buy a condo in Maui anytime soon, you're going to have to put your money in something pitifully conservative," says George Feiger, chief executive of Contango Advisors, a wealth-management firm that serves clients in the western U.S.
But for the long haul -- perhaps the next five years, many experts say -- U.S. stocks aren't a bad place to be. America's corporations continue to rake in money; profits for the S&P 500 are up 16 percent, year over year. The market itself is trading at about 12 times expected earnings, lower than the long-term historical average of about 15 times. Plus, U.S. stocks tend to do well when things look pretty bleak. According to Ned Davis Research, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posts an average annualized gain of 13.7 percent when consumer confidence numbers are at their lowest (the reverse is true, as well; the Dow underperforms when consumers are superconfident). "If you're underexposed to U.S. equities, use this volatility to your advantage," Schwab's Sonders says.



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