Perfect Portfolios: Your Next Move in This Market

As the Dow posted its sixth straight loss on Wednesday -- thanks to new worries out of Europe -- we asked the pros what you should do now.

Investing pros have been nudging Americans to invest in foreign stocks for years, but now some are shifting their model portfolios back to favoring domestic ones. The reason: The U.S. economy is still growing (albeit slowly), while much of Europe is slipping into recession. Indeed, fresh reports this week that Greece and other euro-zone countries may derail the economic recovery has further jacked up the investor anxiety -- and has pushed the Dow down the past six straight days. Meanwhile, even big emerging markets appear to be losing some steam. "China and Europe are both looking a little shaky," says Sidney Blum, a financial planner at GreatLight Fee Only Advisors in Evanston, Ill, who expects U.S. markets will outpace foreign markets over the next year.

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Not that regular investors are convinced. With the Euro-mess spilling over into the U.S. market, investors have been fleeing domestic stocks. According to the Investment Company Institute, domestic stock funds have had 12 straight months of outflows. But Blum and other financial advisers says these investors are moving in the wrong direction. Instead, they're telling clients to add U.S. stocks, especially dividend-paying ones for retirees, while still keeping some exposure to overseas markets.

In addition, they advise most investors to keep a small portion of their portfolios in bonds and cash in order to give some ballast to theirportfolios in choppy markets. But with cash paying next to nothing, they recommend cash-like options such as ultra-short-term bond funds. For investors needing more yield from their bonds, some recommend increasing the allocation to dividend stocks.

To help reduce volatility, advisers say investors should consider alternative assets. Although commodity funds have been a popular choice, Lee Rosenberg,president of ARS Financial Services in Jericho, N.Y., says their bull run could end if European woes have a greater impact on the global economy. Instead, he favors real estate investment trusts, pointing out that despite a recent run-up inprices, many still have juicy yields.

SmartMoney regularly checks in with financial advisers to see what recommendations they have for investor portfolios given current market conditions. Here's what they're saying.

[smpp32a]

The Portfolios:

  • 32-year-old professional planning to return to grad school
  • 50-year-old couple with two kids in college
  • 57-year-old empty nesters
  • 25-year-old carefree bachelor
  • 40-year-old couple with a kid headed to college
  • 70-year-old multimillionaire couple with lots of potential heirs
  • 34-year-old recent newlyweds
  • 55-year-old single parent, kids finished college
  • 65-year-old marathon runner
[smpp32a]
  • 45% Stocks
  • 30% Bonds
  • 5% Alternatives
  • 20% Cash
32-year-old professional planning to return to grad school

Any cash needed to cover school costs need should be protected from market volatility, advisers say, so that you're not required to sell investments to cover tuition. Your bond portfolio should mostly hold short-term issues that mature in one to three years, or mutual funds or exchange-traded funds that invest in short-term bonds. Although the stock portfolio should include some foreign stocks, experts recommend focusing more on large U.S. multinational companies. Sidney Blum, a financial planner at GreatLight Fee Only Advisors in Evanston, Ill., expects the U.S. markets to beat foreign markets over the next one or two years.

[smpp50]
  • 50% Stocks
  • 30% Bonds
  • 10% Alternatives
  • 20% Cash
50-year-old couple with two kids in college

With two kids in college, experts recommend keeping more money in bonds and cash than if retirement was your only reason for saving. Lee Rosenberg, president of ARS Financial Services in Jericho, N.Y., recommends putting a big portion of your bond portfolio in tax-free municipal bonds, especially if you are in a high tax bracket. He also recommends owning large, dividend-paying stocks and lightening up on foreign stocks. In the alternative sphere, he prefers real-estate investment trusts, or REITs, to commodity funds.

[smpp57]
  • 55% Stocks
  • 28% Bonds
  • 15% Alternative Assets
  • 2% Cash
57-year-old empty nesters

Retirement is approaching, but your portfolio will still need to grow even after you hit retirement age, say advisers. With the kids gone, you won't need a bunch of cash on hand for expenses, so shift some of that cash into growth-oriented equities, says Frank Germack III, director of Capital Management Group at Rehmann Financial in Troy, Mich. Emerging markets, while volatile, have a longer-term outlook, so devoting a small percentage of your stock allocation to these markets is a good idea, he says. Smooth out some of that stock volatility with exposure to alternatives that have lower correlations to the stock and bond markets, like gold, other commodities, real estate and tactical long/short strategies.

[smpp25]
  • 55% U.S. Stocks
  • 30% Foreign Stocks
  • 10% Bonds
  • 5% Cash
25-year-old carefree bachelor

At your age, advisers recommend keeping most of your portfolio in stocks. With bonds paying little interest compared with the dividend yields on many stocks, most recommend just a smattering of fixed-income holdings to balance out your portfolio during volatile markets. Although foreign stocks could grow more over the long term, some market pros are shifting stock portfolios to U.S. stocks now because they think the outlook is more iffy in both Europe and some large developing markets over the next year or two. Lee Rosenberg, president of ARS Financial Services in Jericho, N.Y., says you should keep some money in cash so you don't run up your credit cards if a big bill comes in.

[smpp40]
  • 50% U.S. Stocks
  • 15% Foreign Stocks
  • 20% Bonds
  • 15% Cash
40-year-old couple with a kid headed to college

To prepare for impending college expenses, you should cut down on current expenses and stow those savings away in a 529 account or other education savings account, says Heidi Schmidt, a wealth manager with USAA in Dallas. Those savings should be mainly in cash and bonds if college is a few years away. Retirement savings can't be ignored. Since you are roughly 25 years away from retirement, it's important to remain heavily invested in stocks. Consider putting 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds, including a sliver of high yield bonds which should offer more attractive yields, says Schmidt.

[smpp70]
  • 45% Stocks
  • 40% Bonds
  • 10% Alternatives
  • 5% Cash
70-year-old multimillionaire couple with lots of potential heirs

Since you likely have enough money to live comfortably in retirement, experts say the focus should be on growing your portfolio to pass along to your heirs. Instead ofloading up on international stocks, look to snap up more U.S. multinationals, which many predict will post strong growth in the coming year or two. And while commodities can help bring down the risk in your portfolio, some pros say prices have gotten too high. And although you might have enough money to own investment properties or real estate partnerships, Lee Rosenberg, president of ARS Financial Services in Jericho, N.Y., recommends REITs, which retirees can sell to meet unexpected financial needs. On the bond side of your portfolio, many experts recommend short-term bonds, with one to three years until maturity. For someone in your tax bracket, tax-free municipal bonds or Treasury Inflation Protected Securities make sense, advisers say.

[smpp35]
  • 60% Stocks
  • 10% Alternative assets
  • 20% Bonds
  • 10% Cash
35-year-old couple with a young child

You'll want to strike a balance between saving for college and saving for retirement, say advisers. Just remember: "What you do for one you take away from the other," says Greg Plechner, a certified financial planner with Modera Wealth Management in Westwood, NJ. Have a cash cushion on hand for emergencies or any potential big-ticket purchases in your future, and invest the rest with a long-term time frame in mind. This includes your bond allocation; says Plechner, use a bond fund based on the Barclay's aggregate index as your core holding and add in exposure to high-yield and international debt. That way you'll add to your diversification, and balance out interest rate and credit risk, he says.

[smpp42]
  • 40% Stocks
  • 10% Alternative assets
  • 25% Bonds
  • 25% Cash
42-year-old couple; one spouse in unemployed

Going from a two-income to a one-income household is tough, and advisers recommend protecting current assets while job hunting. You'll need some growth, so don't bail from the stock market, says John Sestina, a certified financial planner in Columbus, Ohio. But allocate at least five-years' worth of living expenses to safe assets like money market funds or certificates of deposit in case the job hunt drags on longer than expected. Sestina suggests using a laddered approach: Keep the current year's expenses in a money market fund, next year's in one-year CDs that will mature when the current year's money runs out, and so on. This way money is protected and available for emergencies, he says.

[smpp75medbills]
  • 15% Stocks
  • 45% Guaranteed Investments
  • 25% Bonds
  • 15% Cash
75-year-old widow

At this age, your retirement income is being supplemented by Social Security benefits and pension payments, if you or your late husband earned one at work. In addition to those payments, you likely have a lump sum of money you want to invest in order to last you through the rest of retirement, which could mean an additional 20 years for those in good health, says Frank Armstrong, president of Miami-based advisory firm Investor Solutions. With interest rates as low as they are, retirees should avoid long term bonds, which would see the steepest price drops if interest rates rise, advisers say. Secure about 10 years worth of income in short-term, high quality bond funds, says Armstrong.

[smpp34]
  • 50% U.S. Stocks
  • 25% Foreign Stocks
  • 15% Bonds
  • 10% Cash
34-year-old newlyweds

Outside of funding your day-to-day living expenses, most of your savings should go toward retirement, say experts. And since you have a long life ahead, most of your portfolio should be in stocks both domestic and international. You should also keep up to 15% in bonds tobalance out your portfolio when the stock market turns choppy, and keep some cash in savings in case of financial emergencies. "Any newlywed I know has to buy everything to set up their life," says Lee Rosenberg, president of ARS Financial Services in Jericho, N.Y. "If you only have 5% of your savings in cash, you'll run up credit cards."

[smpp55]
  • 55% Stocks
  • 30% Bonds
  • 5% Alternatives
  • 10% Cash
55-year-old single parent, kids finished college

As you near retirement, you'll want to gradually want to decrease your stock allocation to limit market risk to your savings. Still, with retirement 10 years away and hopefully a long life ahead you still need a large stock portfolio to produce returns that can last you well intoyour golden years. With money-market and savings accounts yielding near zero, experts recommend ultra-short-term bonds, which mature in one to three years. Stick with mutual funds or exchange-traded funds to spread out some of the risk and volatility, says Sidney Blum, a financial planner at GreatLight Fee Only Advisors in Evanston, Ill.

[smppmarathoner]
  • 55% Stocks
  • 25% Bonds
  • 10% Alternatives
  • 10% Cash
65-year-old marathon runner

Being that you are in good health, you may want to delay receiving Social Security benefits until age 70 to take advantage of delayed retirement credits, advisers say. Social Security benefits are increased by 8% each year a person waits beyond full retirement age, for a maximum 32% boost at age 70. And since living to 100 is becoming more common, you may want to be up to 60% invested in stocks to prepare for a potentially long retirement, says Heidi Schmidt, a wealth manager with USAA in Dallas. Someone with chronic illnesses or greater health concerns may lower that down to 50%, she says. Advisers say the majority of the bond portfolio at this age should be kept in high quality bonds to reduce volatility. But up to 8% can be invested in riskier high yield bonds, which have higher payouts and can boost income, says Schmidt.

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