The Stock Market's All-Star Performers

Firms that can surprise Wall Street in three ways can quite often help long-term investors, too.

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They say hitting a baseball is the hardest feat in sports. No wonder players who get a hit just three times out of 10 are often stars. Turns out, the corporate world has its own elite club of stocks that knock it out of the park during earnings season.

Investing pros refer to them as triple plays. These companies beat analysts' estimates of their profits per share and sales, and raise expectations about the kind of results they'll deliver in the future. During the earnings season that ended this winter, less than 10 percent of companies pulled off a triple play, according to Bespoke Investment Group, an investment research firm. The least common part of the triple play is when companies raise guidance that is, when they signal to investors that they'll continue to top expectations. Company executives will often indicate that they're optimistic by using words like robust and healthy when talking to investors and analysts about the demand for their products. This happens less often in uncertain economic climates, like today's. "There are very few companies that are sticking their neck out going forward," says Ron Muhlenkamp, manager of the $635 million Muhlenkamp fund.

While many firms remain cagey about their prospects, the truth is that by many measures, corporate America has never looked healthier. The country's largest nonfinancial firms hold hundreds of billions of dollars in cash on their balance sheets. When the economy tanked, companies had to slash spending to make a profit. These days, more of them are earning profits the old-fashioned way: by growing sales. By the end of 2010, corporate profits had surpassed the heights they'd reached before the recession. And now revenue is rebounding too. During the slowdown, firms with sales growth tended to be those, like Family Dollar Stores, that catered to cautious consumers. But now sales are closing in on their prerecession peaks, says Aaron Smith, senior economist for Moody's Analytics.

Among triple plays, Apple is the paragon of growth that continues to confound. In its quarterly earnings release in January, the Cupertino, Calif. based company reported record sales of $26.7 billion and record net profit of $6 billion. "It's growing at a ridiculous clip," says Michael Sansoterra, manager of the $471 million RidgeWorth Large Cap Growth Stock fund and a shareholder. There are still questions about how long Apple can keep creating products that consumers can't wait to queue up for and whether the iPad will start to cannibalize Apple's laptop computer sales. For now, many investors think the stock is a bargain, given its future growth prospects. "Can the stock go up another 50 percent? Sure," says Jerry Jordan, manager of the $118 million Jordan Opportunity fund and a shareholder.

Many investors would contend that Apple is in a category of its own. For most firms, the ability to beat Wall Street's estimates involves as much psychology as it does business chops. Investors punish companies that fail to meet estimates. Knowing this, managers often offer conservative guidance to investors, if they offer any guidance at all. That's why it's noteworthy when executives raise guidance. In effect, they're saying, "Have I got news for you," says Sandeep Dahiya, associate professor of finance at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business.

Rather than focusing on whether companies beat estimates, investors at home should use a company's earnings reports as a starting point, the pros say. Many professional investors create their own earnings models for the companies they hold and then compare their own projections with those of analysts and company management. There's often a herd mentality among analysts, some critics say. "By the time everyone upgrades Netflix to a buy, it's too well known" to offer great growth prospects, says Bob Auer, manager of the $234 million Auer Growth fund, whose holdings include the triple play Altera, a maker of microchips for telecom and other firms.

A company's earnings can offer a hint about its future stock direction. Research on so-called "post-earnings-announcement drift" shows that generally speaking, stock prices continue to move in the direction of the earnings surprise up to a year after the announcement. "The companies that beat expectations continue to do very well," Dahiya says.

Firms that beat sales and profit expectations while also raising expectations on future profits could be good long-term plays:

Apple (AAPL)

Shares of the firm trade at 15 times this year's earnings estimates, well below their 10-year average of 47. What's next? Technology that brings the computer to your TV, analysts say. Apple could use a new hit, since it is facing tough competition from Android smartphones.

Caterpillar (CAT)

The world's largest construction-equipment maker recently agreed to buy mining-equipment manufacturer Bucyrus. "This could be a $150 stock in a couple years," says Craig Hodges, comanager of the $308 million Hodges fund. Some critics, however, say it's better to grow profits organically than to pay top dollar to buy a company.

Tempur-Pedic (TPX)

One might think high-end mattresses would be a tough sell in a still-shaky economy. Not so for those made by Lexington, Ky. based Tempur-Pedic. The company beat quarterly earnings-per-share estimates by an impressive 16 percent recently. "They have knocked the cover off the ball," says Hodges, a shareholder.

Acme Packet (APKT)

This Bedford, Mass. based firm makes devices that help send data across Internet-protocol networks. They invented the so-called session border controller, which has become more important as more video and voice data has gone online. Investors are paying a hefty premium for the stock, however; it trades at 66 times this year's expected earnings.

Altera (ALTR)

This company, headquartered in San Jose, Calif., makes microchips that enable 3G and 4G wireless transmission. Sales to China made up one-third of its 2010 revenue of nearly $2 billion. Some Wall Streeters doubt that Altera can keep growing rapidly, but the company continues to surprise to the upside, says Patrick Newton, a semiconductor analyst with investment bank Stifel Nicolaus.

* Fiscal year ends 9/24/11.
Source: Bloomberg

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