I CAN'T IMAGINE

anything as absolutely useless as the so-called Super Bowl indicator. The perennially publicized trading strategy suggests that stocks tend to rise when a team from the original National Football League wins. If one of the old American Football League squads prevails, then it's instead a bearish sign. Based on the New England Patriots victory in Sunday night's championship game, so the thinking goes, the market is heading south.

Folks, let's cut to the chase on this one: The Super Bowl indicator is nothing more than a great way for Robert Stovall, the market strategist who perpetuates the theory, to get his name in the paper every year. Maybe stocks will fall in 2004. Who knows? But the fact that it's the Super Bowl, an election year or a full moon has little influence on how events will ultimately unfold. You might as well be watching how many times the neighbor's dog poops on your lawn.

Like it or not, there is no holy grail. But when your goal is to analyze a stock, it seems more than a little logical to start with the stock itself. If I'm putting money to work, my ideas always come first and foremost from what's happening in the market and not in the newspapers, among analysts or between commercials on cable TV.

When asked about the market, most people will inevitably end up talking about anything but. Oh, they'll mention the Dow, or maybe comment on the tech bubble, but most likely end up opining on tax cuts, George Bush, housing starts or some other piece of statistical minutia. And although I respect that knowledge, I surely wouldn't trade on it. Just like the Super Bowl indicator, it's far too removed from the market itself to have any impact on my approach, outlook or bottom line.

And considering that there are dozens of sectors, thousands of funds and countless individual securities, if you're following the market, there's always an abundance of action to discuss. Of course, the picture isn't always clear figuring out what's actually happening in the market isn't as easy as just seeing who wins the big game. But it's a lot clearer when you focus on what matters.

As we've noted before, you should start by looking at what you've already got. And for many people, the first step isn't even adding new securities, but cleaning out the old ones. Far too many investments are dragged around like old luggage nobody wants to dump. Weak sectors, losing trades and tiny "useless" positions are all good places to begin.

When it comes to putting new money to work, your instinct should be to analyze the market, not economics, politics or, God forbid, sports. Because while we can never know the future, we can understand the present. And because the market moves in trends, that's oftentimes more than enough to position yourself for profit. I can't guarantee that I'll know what the weather will be like in Chicago tomorrow, but given the past few weeks, I'd take odds it's going to be cold. It's a reality of life: Trends, both in the seasons and in the market, tend to persist.

The real alchemy of investing isn't picking stocks, but being able to synergize what's happening in the market with what's happening in your portfolio. Like a Hail Mary pass or a last-minute field goal, big stock calls make the headlines. But as is our thesis here at Tradecraft, it's technique that ultimately matters. Knowing what to do and actually being able to execute are often two entirely different matters altogether. Talk doesn't put points on the scoreboard.

You've gotta love this game. Because no matter whom you root for, the market will humble us all. So if you've ever inquired as to where New Zealand is opening on Sunday night, or can recite by memory what each morning's fair value on the S&P futures might be, then you and I have a shared soul. And if that's the case, then you probably also feel about sports (and the Super Bowl indicator specifically) as I do: With dozens of ticker symbols and hundreds of prices to track, who gives a hoot how many touchdowns were scored in the first half?

The best sport in the world is played every day at the corners of Wall and Broad in New York and Jackson and LaSalle in Chicago. And while I can't offer a can't-lose system for picking the next big thing, I can promise you that before you read about it in Business Week you'll see it in the market. So turn off the game, turn on the screen and keep your eyes open. There are plenty of big plays still to be made.

Jonathan Hoenig is managing member at Capitalistpig Asset Management, a Chicago-based hedge fund.