BySANDRA WARD
IN TIMES THAT ARE ANYTHING BUT NORMAL>, it pays to invest in a company that delivers reliable, business-as-usual results, keeps its focus on avenues of growth and holds the promise of market-beating returns. Verizon Communications , the New York-based telecommunications giant, fits the bill nicely.
Amid the market turbulence and economic upheaval of the past year, Verizon (VZ)
CONSIDERING THE EPIC SLOWDOWN affecting the world's economies, it isn't surprising that Verizon's results had a downside: Wireline margins were softer than expected, hurt by pricing pressures and volume declines at the division created by the 2006 merger with MCI, Verizon Business, which provides global communications networks to corporations and governments.
Layoffs, severe weakness in the financial and retail sectors and a negative foreign-exchange impact were big factors affecting the business-enterprise segment. Verizon also gained fewer new wireless subscribers than expected. And the company estimated costs linked to pension and post-retirement benefits will shave nine cents to 11 cents from full-year 2009 earnings.
Yet, all in all, Verizon has shown it can handle tough times, helped by a well-diversified revenue mix. That is comforting, as conditions remain difficult.
For 2008, Verizon posted a profit of $6.4 billion, or $2.26 a share, on $97.4 billion in revenue, compared with $5.5 billion, or $1.90, on $93.5 billion for 2007. "The results reflect solid execution by each business unit and, in the context of 2009, indicate that we clearly have the potential to continue to perform well, both absolutely and relatively in this very challenging market," says CEO Ivan Seidenberg.
Investors couldn't ask for a better buying opportunity than this blue-chip behemoth with a stock-market value of $86 billion. Trading around 12 times estimated 2009 earnings of about $2.53 a share and 11.5 times the $2.68 projected for 2010, Verizon offers an attractive refuge in a weak macroeconomic landscape.
"You're able to buy good quality at a reasonable price," says Cliff Hoover, co-chief investment officer at Dreman Value Management, which oversees more than $11 billion in investments from Jersey City, N.J. "It's a good core holding for us." Hoover sees Verizon appreciating to $41 to $42 a share in the next year or two -- about 40% above its recent price of $30.27. Verizon's stable free-cash-flow and 6% dividend yield burnish the stock's attractiveness, he says.
The recently completed $28 billion acquisition of Alltel makes Verizon Wireless -- a joint venture with the U.K.'s Vodafone (VOD)
Verizon, which owns a controlling 55% stake in Verizon Wireless, expects $9 billion in savings from the Alltel acquisition and is on track to post 10% revenue growth from its wireless operations in 2009. Many expect Verizon to someday buy Vodafone's stake, but don't expect this to happen soon. Wireless generates about 55% of Verizon's revenue, and Verizon Wireless has some of the business's best metrics -- a low customer churn rate, high profitability and strong customer satisfaction.
Moreover, FiOS is proving to be popular and competitive against the high-speed Internet and high-definition TV services offered by Comcast and other cable providers. In the fourth quarter, Verizon reported 303,000 net new FiOS TV customers and 282,000 FiOS Internet users, helped by the service's introduction in the New York City market. Capital spending related to the buildout of FiOS peaked in mid-2007, and that allows Verizon to redeploy more free cash flow to pay down debt, much of it assumed in the Alltel purchase.
ANOTHER FAN OF THE SHARES is Richard Arvedlund, manager of $300 million Cypress Capital Management in Wilmington, Del., who finds Verizon's low-risk profile and "intriguing" dividend yield appealing.
"The yield is twice that of the long-term bond," Arvedlund says, noting that dividends are taxed at 15%, not at the higher ordinary income rate. "The math is compelling."
And so are the shares.
The Bottom Line
As it continues to expand wireless, data, and video offerings via purchases and capital expenditures, Verizon could see its shares price increase by 30% over the next two years.



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