ByJAMES B. STEWART
I was riveted by the news>, first reported by USA Today, that Apple (AAPL) is talking to Verizon (VZ) about distributing the iPhone. Now The Wall Street Journal reports that Microsoft (MSFT) could be raising the stakes in talks with Verizon over an iPhone competitor.
As an investor, I own shares in Apple, Verizon and AT&T (T), which pretty much covers the iPhone bases.
As a consumer, I'm a Verizon customer using an aging handset that's not only prone to frequent malfunctions. It's also an embarrassment to be seen extracting it from my pocket. For better or worse, Apple and rival Research in Motion (RIMM) have made the cellphone a bigger status symbol than the fountain pen ever was.
My predicament suggests precisely why, depending on the terms, this may be a brilliant move for Apple and Verizon, and may not be so bad for AT&T. I assume there are millions more like me: Verizon Wireless, owned jointly by Verizon and Vodafone, has 87 million wireless customers.
The fact is, I want the iPhone. As someone who makes a living at a traditional keyboard, you'd think I'd be the perfect candidate for the typist-friendly interface of the BlackBerry. Nor am I especially attracted to the music feature of the iPhone. I still don't have an iPod, though I've given some as gifts. I'm an avid music fan, but I'm not interested in hearing it on the subway, in the gym, or in planes. I don't like ear phones, which I find to be socially alienating and uncomfortable. Maybe that will change. A friend of mine is using his iPod to study French while on the treadmill.
So what's so appealing to me about the iPhone? It's that everyone else is getting one and using the growing array of applications, and I can synchronize my MacBook Air and Mac desktop into a seamless Apple-centric existence. Plus it looks great.
Which brings me to Verizon. Unlike my Apple products, I can't say I have any deep affection for my wireless carrier. Nor do I have any serious complaints. When I had service problems at my house in upstate New York, Verizon technicians made repeated trips to a remote mountaintop to fix the problem, which impressed me. I hear the various claims to wireless superiority, but I have no basis for comparison. I'd just as soon stay with Verizon, but was ready to switch to AT&T in order to get the iPhone.
This didn't prove as simple as I thought, suggesting that there's considerable customer captivity once a wireless carrier has signed you up. I'm on a household wireless plan, which means there's more than one of us who has to be persuaded. Try talking someone else (especially a teenager) out of their handset and you'll see what I mean, even if you are using the iPhone as bait. And then there is all this speculation that an even better iPhone will be available in just a few weeks or months. After waiting so long, I don't want a product that will be dated almost as soon as I get it.
And now I read about an Apple-Verizon flirtation, which offers even more reason to delay.
If my thinking is any indication, Apple is in the driver's seat here. AT&T seems to have benefited mightily from its iPhone monopoly, though it's hard to know how much, given that the terms of the arrangement remain confidential.
While some analysts have been saying that an Apple-Verizon deal would be terrible for AT&T, I'm not so sure. Presumably, AT&T is paying dearly for that exclusivity. If it gets the iPhone on a nonexclusive basis, it should be able to cut a much better deal with Apple, boosting profitability.
For Verizon, I feel an Apple deal is essential. If I'm any indication, it potentially could lose millions of customers, a problem likely to grow even more acute if the iPhone evolves into the industry standard. While I've been impressed with Verizon's rollout of its fiber optic network, which by many accounts delivers superior quality to the home, it will be a hollow victory if Verizon loses the wireless war because it lacks the iPhone.
All of which once again demonstrates the brilliance of Steve Jobs in recognizing that technology is not a commodity, and by building products to which customers develop a fierce emotional attachment. Apple can control its destiny while racking up enormous profits.
As an investor, I remain content to own all three companies and would buy more on weakness. As a customer, I have only this to say: Please hurry up and sort this out so I can get an iPhone.



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