What to Watch for Now at 8 Key Retailers

Retailers posted a broad increase in October same-store sales, as the industry continued to adjust its estimates to what market watchers call a new normal. Although the numbers may look favorable compared to last year s, don t expect this new normal to be anywhere near the good old days.

Sales at stores open at least a year rose 2.1% percent in October, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs report. That s compared to a 4.2% drop last year in October.

We re going against such easy comparisons, and it looks like maybe we re hitting the new normal, but it may take a few more months to play out and see, says Marie Driscoll, a retail analyst in Standard & Poor s equity research department. As we go forward, we know this time a year ago, retailers were really concerned, they were way over inventory, and drastically dropped prices. We re not in that position this year.

Now, retailers seem to be in a better inventory position, giving them more agility, and the beginning of the month had strong demand, possibly due to the need for cold weather apparel, says Driscoll. But the numbers turned weaker as the month progressed, and that s disconcerting.

See what to watch for at Kohl's, and 7 other retailers.

Traders should keep in mind that job creation is at a standstill, and if people aren t earning, then they re usually not spending. Given the employment situation, retailers were fortunate to see a slight uptick, says Emanuel Weintraub, president and CEO of Emanuel Weintraub Associates, a management consulting firm specializing in the retail apparel. Recent indicators suggest stabilization may have helped. Those people who are employed are now thinking that since they haven t been fired yet, maybe their jobs are secure, he says.

Although there may be modest pent-up demand, this is still not an exuberant consumer economy, Driscoll says. And the big picture showed that as 52% of retailers came in below expectations, 44% topped Wall Street views.

The big thing is that the new normal has arrived, says Weintraub. Strong retailers will survive, the weaklings will definitely go out of business, and the idea of anyone ever really seriously contemplating that they re going to do the quantities they did in the past is not realistic.

So what s next for retailers? SmartMoney looked at eight companies that reported October results and examined what their hits and misses mean for them as they head into the holiday season.

The numbers: Kohl s reported a 4.9% year-over-year increase in overall October sales, but just a 1.4% lift in stores open at least a year. That was well below the 6.2% hike in same-store sales analysts had expected.

What to watch for: The retailer raised its third-quarter earnings guidance after a boost from sales, cost cuts and inventory reductions. Kohl's now forecasts a third-quarter profit in the range of 60 cents to 61 cents a share, up from its prior view of 52 cents to 54 cents a share and above analysts estimates of 57 cents a share. The company is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov. 12 at 7 a.m.

The numbers: Gap reported a 6% sales drop in its Gap stores, but traders cheered a 5% increase in sales at Banana Republic and a 14% jump at Old Navy. Old navy is really doing well, as they should, but it s a testament to their current management team that they have turned that business around, that they ve cleaned up the stores, that they re a fun place to shop, said Driscoll of Standard & Poor s. We were a little surprised to see Banana with a positive comparison. It seemed to me that they were on sale the whole month -- so maybe that s what they re doing.

What to watch for: Will sales at the company s higher- and lower-end chains translate to an earnings surprise? The Gap forecast third-quarter earnings between 42 cents and 44 cents a share, topping Street expectations of 38 cents a share. The company reports on Nov. 19.

The numbers: American Eagle reported a 5% drop in same-store sales as traffic slowed, surprising analysts who had predicted a 1.7% increase.

What to watch for: The retailer expects a third-quarter profit of between 20 cents and 21 cents a share, slightly undercutting the consensus of 22 cents a share, when it reports results on Nov. 24 at 8 a.m. One question to keep in mind: Will the teen apparel retailer release guidance predicting better holiday demand than back-to-school demand?

The numbers: Aeropostale s stock took a big hit Thursday on disappointing sales data. Analysts had pegged a 13.8% pop in same-store sales for last month, but the retailer reported 3% rise.

What to watch for: The company releases third-quarter earnings on Dec. 2., and after falling well short of analysts monthly sales estimates, the retailer nonetheless raised its third-quarter guidance to 90 cents to 91 cents a share, up from a range of 84 cents to 85 cents a share. Where will it pick up those cost efficiencies? Also, the fourth quarter will be a transitional one for management, as Mindy Meads and Thomas Johnson prepare to take over as co-chief executives for Julian R. Geiger, who will step down at the end of the year.

The numbers: Children's Place Retail Stores reported same-store sales dipped 2% -- including 4% drop in the U.S. and a 5% decline in Canada. Analysts had predicted a 3.1% drop. Online sales lifted results, jumping an eye-catching 44%.

What to watch for: Does the sales surprise mean the company will live up to its earnings guidance? The children s retailer predicts third-quarter earnings from continuing operations of $1.35 to $1.39 a share when it releases results on Nov. 19. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are predicting a profit of 97 cents a share, on average.

The numbers: Weaker demand for high-end products like upscale jewelry continued to weigh on sales at JC Penney. The company said sales fell by 4.5%, slightly worse than the 3.5% drop analysts had expected.

What to watch for: The company releases third-quarter earnings on Nov. 13 and expects a profit of between 10 cents and 11 cents a share (including a three-cent-a-share charge for real estate impairments). That s an improvement over its recent forecast for between three cents and 10 cents a share.

The numbers: Target s sales were surprisingly on the mark. Sales at the big-box retailer dipped 0.1% in October as consumers stuck to the necessities. Wall Street had predicted no change.

What to watch for: Target expects another flat month for sales in November. And for now, a rebound at the company may have more to do with broader economic conditions. In this sales environment, retailers that will do well are those that are totally focused on value and are attracting the crossover, middle-market buyers, says Weintraub, of Emanuel Weintraub Associates.

The numbers: Saks said sales open at least a year rose 0.7%, toppling analysts estimates for a drop of 3.6%. I think the people that are the most vulnerable are at the high end, but Nordstrom has done well and Coach turned around, says Driscoll.

What to watch for: Investors may still be looking for a bottom. The retailer reiterated its expectations that sales for the second half of 2009 will fall by a percentage in the mid-to-high-single-digit range.

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