It s been 369 days since the Dow slid below 10,000. How many more until the benchmark index climbs back over the line?

Last week, we asked more than three dozen economic and investing professionals to predict the exact date and time the Dow would next hit 10,000. The average of their predictions: Dec. 7, when the market opens. Our readers were less optimistic.

In a poll asking for readers predictions, only 39% of several hundred respondents said they believed the Dow would hit 10,000 before Dec. 7. Among the pros who offered a precise guess, just more than half (51%) picked a date before Dec. 7.

The majority of our pros who offered guesses after Dec. 7 put the crossover date in December or January (only one guess fell after the first half of next year). Readers seemed to feel we d have longer to wait: 23% said we d cross the 10,000 barrier MUCH later than Dec. 7.

Why the disparity? Maybe our poll was dominated by pessimistic respondents, or perhaps readers were simply as gun-shy as brokerage founder Muriel Siebert, who said she d rather predict the weather.

Or perhaps this is a case in which insiders are more optimistic than observers. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says the recession is "very likely over," but the Consumer Confidence Index fell slightly in September to a reading of 53.1, according to the Conference Board, and only 8.7% of consumers responding to that survey described business conditions as good. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management s surveys of purchasing managers in the manufacturing and services sectors were in positive territory in September, which suggests respondents believe business is expanding.

Of course, skepticism can be healthy. As one commenter on our reader poll pointed out, the real question investors are likely wondering about is not when the Dow will merely jump above 10,000, but when it will take root there. But that s another poll.