ByRUSSELL PEARLMAN
Now that many consumers> and companies are sharply reining in their spending, some say investors' fears of a steep downturn were justified. But have the stocks of some quality companies suffered more than their businesses will? These firms, with healthy balance sheets and good business models, could take off when the economic outlook improves.
Medco Health Solutions (MHS)
Long a growth market, prescription-drug sales slowed down considerably in 2008, according to the health care research group IMS Health, and 2009 might not be much better. That hurt pharmacy benefits manager Medco Health Solutions, a Franklin Lakes, N.J., firm that fills more than 560 million prescriptions a year for insurers, government agencies and corporations. Medco's shares also took a beating on worries that an Obama administration might hurt profit margins by mandating lower prices on prescription drugs.
But analysts say consumers can cut back only so much on prescription spending without risking their health. And now that Medco is trading at about 15 times expected 2009 profits, that risk, along with concern about Obamanomics, could be fully reflected in the stock.
Dentsply (XRAY)
William Jellison, Dentsply's chief financial officer, tells SmartMoney that the world's economic downturn has indeed slowed the dentistry industry's growth from its current 4 to 5 percent annual rate, but he adds that it's still growing as the population ages and more people "are retaining their teeth." Joe Milano of the T. Rowe Price New America Growth fund estimates Dentsply earnings can grow 10 percent in 2009 "unless we have the Great Depression."
Apple (AAPL)
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Today sales growth is slowing around the world, but inventories are in better shape. And with a cash hoard of $27 billion, or $4.60 a share, the Redwood City, Calif., company has flexibility to buy smaller firms and expand its businesses or-gasp-initiate a dividend. A Cisco spokesperson says it has discussed starting a dividend, but that for the time being it will use the cash for acquisitions or other ways to fuel growth.
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