What to Worry About Instead of Stress Tests

For a so-called stress test, that wasn't bad at all. For much of this week, results of the government s test of a worst-case scenario for the nation s 19 largest banks and the additional capital they would need in such a situation has leaked to media outlets well before the official announcement on Thursday. And after much teeth-gnashing the information has been met with a shrug -- if not outright relief. Witness Wednesday's report that Bank of America (BAC), the country's biggest bank by assets, would need to raise an additional $35 billion in capital: Shares soared 17% on the news.

So much fear appears to have been baked into stress-tested bank shares that bad news is now good news. Reports said Wells Fargo (WFC) may need to raise $15 billion. Its shares rose 15%. Citigroup (C), supposedly in need of $5 billion, gained 16%. Those companies outpaced firms like American Express (AXP), JP Morgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) that supposedly don t need any additional cash.

The market's reaction is no surprise, experts say, partly because of the way so much information leaked out ahead of the official report. "This has been intentionally telegraphed," says Brett D'Arcy, director of investment research at CBIZ Financial Solutions (CBZ) . "The news that BofA had the largest gap took any extraordinary fear out of the situation. We know that BofA is one of the bookends and the rest are going to fall in line."

It also helps that the market has pretty much been able to discern for itself the relative strengths and weaknesses of banks' balance sheets, despite the secrecy surrounding the tests, says Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Burns Advisory Group, a private wealth manager based in Oklahoma City. "The purpose was to keep the information from getting out and prevent shorting of bank shares and a run on banks," Courtney says. "But the market figured it out on its own. Everybody knows roughly who the weaker players are."

Note how Citigroup fell to as little a buck a share back in early March, Courtney says, while BofA dropped to $3 back then.

Although it's certainly a relief to have the stress test behind us, it's not as if investors can relax. There's plenty more potential market-moving news and data in the days and weeks ahead. Indeed, the government still needs to spend the stimulus money, and further along the TARP, TALF and PPIP plans -- and it may go after health care, too.

Here, then, is a look at some key points investors need to keep in mind now that the stress tests are behind them.

Friday's payroll report could go a long way toward bolstering market confidence. After all, an economy that's 70% driven by consumer spending needs its consumers to have jobs. Wednesday's ADP Employment report showed private payrolls fell by less than expected. Let's hope that shows up in the official data, too. "We all know employment is bad," D'Arcy says, "so if the Friday numbers are better than expected it could have an impact because it could indicate that we are further along in a recovery than we thought."

Perhaps a more important catalyst -- for good or for ill -- will be what happens on May 20. That's when the White House convenes it first meeting of its economic advisory panel, led by former Fed Chief (and ruthless inflation fighter) Paul Volcker. "That's where the adult [Volcker] comes back to the table, as opposed to the man from the club [Geithner]," says Keith McCullough, chief executive of ResearchEdge, a New Haven, Conn., research firm. "That's going to be the sobriety test where investors will focus on the longer-term picture, which Volcker understands better than most."

First-quarter earnings season is almost over and it was lousy -- but not nearly as bad as feared. The S&P 500 was forecast to post a nearly 40% drop in earnings heading into the season, according to Thomson Reuters. Cut to today and it's closer to 35%. Meanwhile, of the 338 companies in the S&P that posted results from April 7 through last week, 68% beat Street estimates, according to Bloomberg data. "The market is keying on the belief that corporate earrings will be better in two or three quarters from now and that we have made a bottom in the earnings cycle," D'Arcy says. Let's hope we can get out of this earnings season without any nasty surprises disturbing that view.

The housing sector got us into this mess and many experts think only its recovery will get us out of it. Investors should keep an eye out for a stabilization of home prices and any upticks in sales volume. Indeed, on Monday the National Association of Realtors announced its index of pending home sales rose 3.2% in March, a 1.1% increase from the same time period last year and well above the level experts were anticipating. Does that signal a bottom? It s still unclear. But traders take notice: News reports from the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) annual meeting last weekend quoted Warren Buffett saying there were signs the housing market was finally getting back on track.

Could the stress test mark the end of the banking crisis? Only time will tell, but let us hope so, since financials have been leading the market by the nose. The S&P 500 Bank stock price index plunged to a new bear market low on March 5. As of Monday it had gained 130% from that trough. Also potentially boosting confidence is that banks required to raise capital under the stress test have six months to do so. By that time they might not need it, says Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. "If the economy starts to recover over this period and loan losses abate, as I expect, then the entire exercise may have been a Chinese fire drill," Yardeni wrote in a Wednesday report.

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