ByDAN BURROWS
After decades of strife>, struggle and instability, could the Middle East be the next high-risk/high-reward arena for global investors? Consider President Obama's historic speech in Cairo in early June calling for a new beginning between the United States and Muslims ; or the ongoing drama in Iran, where massive voter turnout just might succeed in bringing a reform candidate to power.
The times, are they a-changin'?
True, very much remains to be seen and done, but with new mutual funds and exchange-traded funds launching in just the last couple years, there are more opportunities than ever for investors interested in the geopolitically challenging but potentially highly lucrative region. Indeed, a mini bull market may already be forming. After plunging more than 50% in 2008, the Bloomberg Africa/Middle East index is up 15% in 2009.
See five ways to invest in the Middle East
Of course, plenty of caveats remain, says Joe Clark, managing partner of Financial Enhancement Group of Anderson, Ind., which has no position in that part of the globe. "One of the challenges is that when you look at the entire Middle East you are still only talking about a small percentage [about 5%] of world population," Clark says. "And the biggest investing theme is oil. There are far safer ways to play oil than going into the Middle East."
Still, the higher the risk, the higher the potential reward -- if you're aggressive enough and can wait long enough, says Mark Ragusa, president and chief investment manager of Money Map Advisors in Houston. "Investing in the Middle East now is like investing in the United States in the 1900s," Ragusa says. "It's just a long-term growth play."
SmartMoney spoke with market professionals to take the lay of the Middle East landscape. From mutual funds to ETFs to individual stocks, here's a look at five ways to get a piece of the Middle East.
When it comes to the Middle East, there are multitudes of added layers of risk -- geopolitical, currency and compliance, to name a few -- that the average retail investor doesn't understand, says Alan Lancz, president of Alan B. Lancz & Associates of Toldeo, Ohio. Under such circumstances, Lancz advocates active management. That's where the
(
) fund comes in. Launched in late 2007, the fund lost 53% in 2008, hurt partly by slowing regional economic growth, lower oil prices and reduced liquidity in the banking sector, according to portfolio manager Joseph Rohm. Cut to today and the fund is up nearly 46% in the last three months. Top holdings include companies in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon and Egypt. The net expense ratio of 1.32% seems reasonable given the challenges the region poses; there's no load; and the minimum investment is $2,500. However, as Morningstar analyst William Rocco cautions: "This fund's geographic focus means it's too narrow to be used as a solo emerging-markets holding and should be used in combination with other such funds."
T. Rowe Price Africa & Middle East (TRAMX)
For the ultimate in active management, look no farther than Templeton Frontier Markets, which launched in October. (The fund doesn't have a ticker yet but can be purchased through its CUSIP number, which is 88019R674, Templeton says.) Lancz applauds the investing acumen of manager Dr. Mark Mobius, who also runs
(
), a fund that is up more than 50% year to date and 83% in the last three months, according to Morningstar. And the Templeton Frontier Markets fund allows for even greater drilling down into the Middle East, with potential exposure to Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and United Arab Emirates, among others. But it all comes at a price. True, the minimum investment is just $1,000 and Lancz says, "Mobius is a very good money manger." He had better be to recoup the fund s 5.75% sales charge.
Templeton Emerging Markets Small Cap A (TEMMX)
There's nothing like ETFs for liquidity, transparency and cheap fees. Those are some of the draws for Mark Ragusa of Money Map Advisors, who has allocated 6% of his aggressive tactical allocation portfolio to the
(
). "This is not for your typical aggressive allocation," Ragusa says. "This is really for someone with a very high appetite for risk." No one knows whether we'll have peace in the Middle East, Ragusa says, only that the region's GDP is growing at 5% and this ETF offers a play on financials and oil. Even better, it's a dividend weighted index, meaning underlying companies can't easily fiddle with their numbers. "You can't really hide the fact that you re paying a dividend," Ragusa says. "Cash out is cash out." Just remember, says Ragusa, this is a high-risk, long-term opportunity. Also beware that the ETF, which is just about a year old, can trade at a steep premium to its net asset value.
WisdomTree Middle East Dividend fund (GULF)
For those with true intestinal fortitude, individual stock picking in the region is another way to go. Rahul Sharma, portfolio manager at Schafer Cullen Capital Management in New York, doesn't much like ETFs for the Middle East. "Sure, you're buying the good stocks, but you're getting the bad ones, too," Sharma says. "I just can't imagine wanting to own so much of the Middle East." This stockpicker's favorite company in the region is Egypt's
(
). The company, which is predominantly in the construction and fertilizer businesses, cannily sold off its cement division two years ago right at the peak, and then used the proceeds to pay a dividend and invest in the fertilizer business. Very shrewd moves, Sharma says. Orascom stands to benefit from population and infrastructure growth in the region, as governments -- the company's main customers -- try to cope with demographic changes, as well as get away from dependence on oil for revenue.
Orascom Industries (ORSDF)
Just across the Sinai Peninsula lies
(
), another top Sharma pick. True, the telecom business is mature, but the company trades at just nine times earnings and throws off a chunky 10% dividend yield. Sharma also likes Cellcom's defensive nature. "Telecom in general is a fairly defensive sector no matter where you are and in Israel that's especially true," he says. The market contains only three operators, Sharma points out, and thus far they've avoided the types of price wars we've become so accustomed to here in the U.S. "Cellcom Israel compares favorably to other telecoms globally that have similar kinds of market penetration and the yield is highly attractive," Sharma says. Analysts' average call on the ADR is Buy, according to Thomson Reuters and their median price target of $32 implies upside of 23% in the next 12 months or so.
Cellcom Israel (CEL)



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