Is This the Dollar's Great Decline?

The British pound peaked in 1934 and the dollar seems to be in a similar downward spiral

Hard to believe given this month's horrific mob violence, but there was a time when England's economy and currency were the undisputed pillar of world dominance. Countries ranging from Australia to Jamaica to South Africa utilized the British pound for its liquidity, stability and strength.

Over the course of the 20th century that has changed, although it didn't happen overnight. Like most economic trends, the British pound's decline occurred slowly but persistently over time, falling from nearly $5/U.S. dollars in 1914 to $1.65 today. Once the world's reserve currency, it now accounts for only 4.1% of foreign exchange reserves.

[trade0818pound]

Source: Rosewood Research

So while recent volatility has reinforced markets' occasional drama, the biggest and most impactful moves undoubtedly occur over time. On a daily or weekly basis, incremental change seems insignificant, yet compounds, just as the days have been getting shorter and colder since June but we won't actually acknowledge fall's arrival until September. Thus is the nature of trend.

That apocalyptic market collapse most people fear, like that which occurred in Belarus earlier this year, tends to occur near the end of a market's move, not at the beginning of it. In reality, every day is "judgment day" as market participants the world over decide how and where to allocate their funds.

More have increasingly been allocating them out of the U.S. dollar, which as we've frequently covered has now retested multi-decade lows against a host of counterparts. The US Dollar Index, tracked by ETFs like PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP), has fallen over 30% over 7 out of the past 10 years and now accounts for 60% of global currency reserves, down from 70% only ten years ago.

In recent months, the government's endless stimulus and intervention has stressed "putting more money in people's pockets." Yet overlooked is the crucial difference between money and wealth: there's no value in holding onto more pieces of paper which buy less goods and services, exactly why countries and individuals gravitate towards the hardest (read: most stable) stores of value.

The big moves take time but they take place over time. When overlaying the high in the dollar, which peaked in 1985 against the British pound, which topped out in 1934, it isn't hard to imagine the greenback to be in a similar long-term decline.

[trade08182]

Source: Rosewood Research

Ten years ago gold seemed like a crackpot idea to investors still picking bottoms in Cisco and other 1990s highfliers; now it's among the country's most popular investments, and SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has nearly become the biggest ETF. Currency trades like the Indian rupee or Russian Ruble certainly appear speculative now, but given the persistent and ongoing decline in the dollar, could ultimately be seen in an equally favorable light.

Jonathan Hoenig is managing member at Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC.

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