You don't see much advertising for stock mutual funds lately. Magazines that once burst with boastful performance metrics from stock mutual funds now find that the funds, and stocks as an asset class, have little to promote.

Over the past 10 years, the S&P 500 has chalked up an average annualized loss of -0.76% and a total return of -7.36%. The index's 5-year performance is also negative, with an average annual loss of -0.24% and a total return of -1.20%

Investors have responded by pulling money of U.S. stock mutual funds for months, including heavy withdrawals in May, June and July according to data from the Investment Company Institute. Money flowed into domestic stock mutual funds in only 15 of the last 43 months, and in infinitesimal dollar figures compared with those cascading into bonds.

Conversely, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) attracted nearly $8 billion in the first half of 2010, as investors increased their investments in gold ETFs by 30% and gold touched a new all-time high.

Now it seems difficult to remember, but it wasn't too long ago when gold's performance figures looked even worse than equities do now.

Picture yourself back in 2001, when the current gold bull market really began, staring at the long-term performance figures of the Fidelity Select Gold (FSAGX). You would have been considering a fund with a 10-year average annual loss of -0.41%, with a total return of -3.69% going back to Dec. 31, 1991. The 5-year performance was even more dismal, losing a total of -50.64% with an average annual return of -16.19%. Investors showed little interest: Assets totaled a mere $237 million.

Now the fund holds nearly $3.4 billion and the performance figures show an average annual 10-year return of over 20.21%. What a difference a decade makes!

The lesson is that a fund's long-term performance, on which many investors weigh heavily when making allocation decisions, bears no impact on how a market actually performs. What matters is how an asset acts in today's market. The fact gold was weak in 1994 was irrelevant to the fact it had turned around 13 years later.

My favorite ideas are those with dismal long-term performance that are showing recent strength that most investors would likely dismiss. And in today's equity environment, that leads to Japan, where the average Japanese stock fund tracked by Morningstar now boasts a 15-year total return of -1.52%, truly atrocious performance, and investment managers allocation to stocks now sits at an 11-year-low.

While the thesis hasn't yet shown dramatic outperformance, I'm content to hold and add selectively knowing that, by the time the long-term numbers have improved enough to attract mass attention, the big move... by definition, is already in the books.