State of the Union and the State of the Markets

During Wednesday s State of the Union address, President Obama reflected on the country s accomplishments. But what investors were looking for were more ideas about his agenda. In particular, they focused on four key potential market moving points: jobs and the economy, the budget deficit, the housing market and national security. While the jury is still out as to whether the president s initiatives will pass muster with Congress, one thing s for sure: Everyone -- especially brokers -- has differing opinions.

Who s Talking: Jeffrey Kleintop, Chief Market Strategist at LPL Financial

The Gist: After the Senate confirmed Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke s second term, the president s agenda, which was detailed in Wednesday s State of the Union address, may either be investors biggest Washington-born stumbling block or catapult.

Last week, big banks led the markets lower after the president called for restricting the size and activities of the U.S. s biggest banks. As a result, Kleintop from LPL Financial expects the president s State of the Union address to have broad effects going forward.

In the speech, Kleintop says the president didn t provide specifics on a jobs proposal and recovery efforts on purpose. After spending much of his political capital on promoting health-care reform, Obama s efforts were dealt a significant setback by Republican Scott Brown s win in Massachusetts, which was seen as a referendum on heath-care reform, he says. In light of this, the president will likely seek to broaden his message. This move to reframe the issues around the economy and recovery, rather than outline specific details, may mean that his speech will likely have less of an impact on the markets than they might have three weeks ago.

Also, the three-year spending freeze on domestic programs, which the president announced Monday to curb the deficit, could hamper government bond yields, says Kleintop. Yields may react negatively to the efforts to pass an increase to the debt limit, the size of any additional stimulus spending, and the limited success at putting measures in place to limit further growth in the deficit, he says.

Still, the economy will remain a constant touch point in the markets. In particular, the president s emphasis on boosting infrastructure-related spending and energy efficiency may provide a lift to stocks within the industrials sector, as well as help jolt energy companies including those in the information technology arena. In addition, the level of the Current Conditions Index -- that is, LPL s weekly measure of the conditions that underline the company s outlook for the markets and economy -- indicates an environment that fosters trend-like growth in the economy and markets. However, Kleintop does expect this index to weaken as a reflection of slower economic growth during the latter half of 2010.

Who s Talking: Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co.

The Gist: In the U.S., stimulus measures are likely to continue to be scaled back, as evidenced from the president s more modest proposals. The timing of those moves -- and how the economy reacts -- will be vital to the markets performance.

Despite seeing some promising signs in the economy, Sonders is keeping her eye on economic indicators for a possible peak in the first half of 2010. There is a distinct possibility for a near-term correction of 6% to 10%, which is further confirmed, as the NDR Investment Advisor Sentiment Index reached heightened levels that indicate extreme optimism. A correction, however, may not be an entirely bad thing. We would welcome a correction if it eased some of this frothy sentiment, she says, adding as a note of caution: It's important for investors to keep their asset allocations in line with their risk tolerances.

Sonders is also watching for what a slowdown in government spending will do. The Federal Open Market Committee recently vowed to keep interest rates near zero for an "extended period. However, the Fed has already started ending its purchases of Treasury securities, which coincided with a rise in the 10-year yield of over 50 basis points in December, she says. In addition, as of Feb. 1, officials plan to halt programs such as providing emergency credit to investment banks, overseas loans through foreign central banks and short-term loans to blue-chip companies based in the commercial paper market. Then on March 31, the Fed will cease purchasing mortgage-backed securities.

When this happens, investors will be looking at housing. The concern is whether these modest efforts will short-circuit the nascent housing recovery, says Sonders. The timing of the removal of these programs, combined with the ending of the government's home-buyer credits in 2010, could stall the housing recovery, she says. Such moves could also further hamper housing stocks.

But the big key is to watch the government and to what degree spending initiatives -- or lack thereof -- affect the economy and the deficit. We have already seen anecdotal evidence that the uncertainty regarding the outcome of the health care debate has caused businesses to put off hiring new workers, while the talk of higher taxes is also causing some consternation, says Sonders.

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