ByRUSSELL PEARLMAN
ON THE HIT TELEVISION
show "24," federal agent Jack Bauer never seems fazed by the terrorist plots, romantic entanglements and ever-present disorder that threaten to overwhelm him. But at least Bauer's troubles are over after a single day. The threats to the stock market over the next 12 months, including a recession, slowing corporate profits, rising commodity prices and a meltdown in the financial-services industry, are enough to make investors think twice about keeping their money in stocks.
Smart investors should take a tip from Bauer and stay cool. Even with a sluggish U.S., the world economy is expected to grow at a 4.8% clip this year, which should provide investing opportunities abroad. (Central European television stations, anyone?) What's more, many large U.S. companies are garnering benefits from the weak dollar, which makes our goods cheaper for foreign buyers. Douglas Peta, market strategist at J.W. Seligman, which manages $20 billion in assets, says his firm has bought into sectors such as agriculture and industrials, betting that rising demand for commodities translates into more profits for the companies that help produce them.
Like Peta, we see a broad range of opportunities in a host of sectors that will benefit from growth overseas. Indeed, the best opportunities in 2008 are companies that are helping the world's emerging economies become more like ours. People in these regions, from Poland to the Philippines, are eating better and spending their money on brand name goods, so we found two ways to take advantage of that. We also picked one beaten-down stock that seems ready for a rebound.
Agriculture
As people in emerging markets earn more money, one of the first things they do is eat more meat. And more cattle, hogs and chickens mean farmers need more corn and soybeans to feed them. Therein lies a problem and an opportunity for investors. Many of these countries lack the farmland to grow new crops, and global inventories of corn, a staple of both human and animal diets, are at their lowest level in more than 30 years, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. That means crop prices, already high, should stay high in 2008 no matter how bountiful the harvest is for farmers this year.
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Worldwide demand for soy meal has been growing at a solid 5% annually for the past decade. And people are using more of the beans for oil as well. White Plains, N.Y.-based Bunge is one of the world's largest soybean processors, buying beans from farmers around the world and refining them into meals and oils. The company processed 102 million metric tons of soybeans in the first nine months of 2007, a 15% increase from the same period last year.
Central Europe
Most of the talk about fast-growing economies centers on China, India and Brazil. But Central and Eastern Europe have been a huge beneficiary of globalization as well. The economies of countries such as Romania and Ukraine have grown at an average 5% clip or higher each year since 2002, as companies from Western European countries have built factories there to take advantage of cheaper labor and a stable, post-Communist political environment. And as Eastern Europeans grow more affluent, Western companies such as Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola are spending heavily on advertising to build their brands throughout the former Communist bloc. Central European Media Enterprises, which operates 16 television stations in Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine and the Czech Republic, will get a big chunk of that ad money. Its stations broadcast everything from soccer matches to "Cesko hled SuperStar," the Czech Republic version of "American Idol." Investing in Central European Media is a bet on the growth of the middle class in Central and Eastern Europe, says Rob Lutts, president of Cabot Money Management, which owns the shares.
Financial Services
The ongoing U.S. housing bust has, so far, crushed two stock sectors: home builders and financial stocks. Banks were the worst-performing group in the S&P 500, down more than 22% from January through October. Many of these financial firms have seen their stocks justifiably punished for underwriting mortgages management knew were high risk or, in the case of several investment banks, for buying those risky investments. But Wall Street's "shoot first, ask questions later" mentality has also hammered some well-managed financial stocks. Genworth Financial sells life insurance, annuities and long-term-care insurance, but it's the 14% of its $11 billion in annual revenue that comes from mortgage insurance that has turned the stock into an untouchable. This summer, as other mortgage insurers began reporting huge losses, investors fled the whole group, pushing the Richmond, Va.-based firm's shares down to $26, from $35 in July. But unlike many of its rivals, Genworth manages its underwriting very conservatively, and the company is still making money in the U.S. mortgage insurance business. Genworth trades at just 8 times next year's expected profit and at just 75% of book value. Life insurers typically trade at 1.4 to 2 times book value, notes David Giroux, portfolio manager of the T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation fund, which owns a large chunk of the stock. He says he thinks the shares could easily climb to $50.



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