Gold's the Belle of the Investment Ball

For gold bugs, what a long, strange trip it's been.

A decade ago, strategists would get laughed at for recommending gold or gold-mining stocks. Stock investors had to scramble for straight commodity exposure, as products like SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), PowerShares Precious Metals Fund (DBP) or iShares Silver Trust (SLV) didn’t exist.

Today, SPDR Gold Shares is the country’s second biggest ETF, and the largest gold-ETF world-wide, with holdings exceeding that of the governments of Switzerland, Russia, Japan or Spain.

Cable TV is filled with ads for gold dealers selling coins, which most certainly wasn’t the case back in 2002 and 2003 just as the commodities rally was getting underway. Commodities investing is now officially mainstream. Wednesday's Drudge Report headline coyly asked “Gold $1,500?”

Source: Drudgereport

Most notably, more investors are eagerly puling in. Investment demand for gold rose 46% in the second quarter over year-ago levels, according to data from the World Gold Council. And a new survey from Credit Suisse Group indicates that more than half of investors play to overweight their commodities exposure in the next 12 months, doubling those who own commodities as an asset now.

SPDR Gold Shares – 3 years

Gold is now poised to closer higher for the ninth straight year and you unlike any period since the early 1980s, the public is decidedly on board. Commodities, and the weak dollar that’s powering them higher, are front-page news everywhere you look (For a new look at how movements in the dollar affect gold prices, check out Kitco.com's new Gold Index.)

I’m not calling a top in gold; in fact, just a few weeks ago we suggested $1,000 an ounce might be cheap. But I am aware that this once shunned asset now has a large legion of fans – a monumental shift from just a few years back.

Investors talked a lot about buying technology stocks in the 1990s, but inflows into equity mutual funds didn’t peak until February 2000, one month before the Nasdaq hit its all-time high of 5,132. By that time, wild predictions such as Dow 40,000 or Dow 100,000 were nearly everywhere, and most financial advisors were either heavily invested in large-cap techs, or chomping at the bit to buy the dips.

In contrast, today most gold analysts see prices falling from current record levels. According to research from Bespoke Investment Group, analysts’ median estimate for future gold prices anticipates a drop to $994 by 2011, $925 by 2012 and $800 by 2013.

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

Gold is now in the midst of the biggest winning streak in 60 years. Yet trends tend to persist, often longer than anyone can imagine. And as long as prices continue to push higher, bulls needn’t worry about a top just yet. The telltale sign the party’s over will come when commodity prices drop, yet the public enthusiasm and interest doesn’t wane. From Cisco in 2000 to Citigroup in 2007, the public goes wrong not in buying a stock at its high, but from adding repeatedly on the way down as it falls.

As part of an overall portfolio, the main advantage of gold, as a private store of wealth, won’t change regardless if the price rises to $1,500 or drops to $500. As we pointed out earlier this year, unlike any asset held in a brokerage or investment account, gold is anonymous, portable, and virtually untraceable. That secrecy will continue to attract interest in an environment in which government – and tax man – are poised to play an even greater role in nearly every part of American life.

Among those commodity prices headed higher: pumpkins. After rising some 33% between 2003 and 2008, pumpkin prices are again expected to rise this fall after an especially cool summer.

Source: USDA