We've Got Big Problems

Barron's: Are we in a recession or are we perhaps talking ourselves into one?

McNay: We certainly are in an economic slowdown, and my personal opinion is that we are in the early phases of a recession.

Whether we are in a recession or not is irrelevant because we are slowing down, and results are becoming more negative. The Federal Reserve has been very much aware of this and has been acting consistently in that regard. They've been increasing the money supply at a much faster rate than people realize, near a 15% annual rate of increase in M3 [a broad measure of the money supply].

What would be more typical growth in M3?

Five percent, maybe. Increasing the money supply kept the situation from getting worse faster than it would have otherwise. From one point of view, that's good. But there is a point of view from which it is not good, and that is it decreases the value of our currency on a consistent basis and sometimes at an accelerated rate. In the past four or five years, the euro has gone from 82 cents to the dollar to $1.48. That is all lost purchasing power in our currency. We are in a lose-lose situation. The decline in the value of our currency is directly inflationary: Lost purchasing power is inflation. The bigger risk is that, at some point, the large holders of U.S. dollars may decide they want a lot less of them, if any. This is a very challenging set of conditions for us.

What does this mean for the market?

We are going to have an even more narrowed and focused market than we had last year. Something the world is going to want now is a currency alternative. An investment I have felt positive about but now feel dramatically more positive about is gold. Gold is probably the single most important investment that most of us can have a representation in.

It has run up quite a bit in the past five years.

Well, it depends on how you look at it. It is back to its old high. But if you compare it with the value of the Dow Jones and the value of the dollar, it's not up nearly as much as one might think. At most tops in gold, gold and the Dow Jones Industrial Average sell at the same price. Right now, gold is about one-fourteenth the price of the Dow. We are denigrating the value of our currency at a much faster rate than we have in the past. The government is running a $250 billion to $400 billion deficit, and our balance of trade is running at a $700 billion or $800 billion deficit. This has all created money at a rate faster than we produce and means that we are further in debt and the value of our money falls faster. One has to come to decisions on how to protect the value of money. Cash is king in the minds of some people. But the biggest question associated with that decision is what currency do you keep your cash in?

And?

I would rather own the Chinese currency than the U.S. currency. As they revalue upwards, it's a growth investment and it gives protection against losing purchasing power, and that is what we are all facing.

When you talk about gold, should people be thinking in terms of the mining companies or bullion?

Both. The metal has outperformed the mining companies in the last three years, but that relationship is in the process of switching and mining companies will be the best investment. But they will both be good investments. There are two ETFs that are convenient for a lot of people: streetTracks Gold Trust (GLD) tracks the gold and Market Vector Gold Miners (GDX) tracks the mining companies.